What To Expect if You Buy or Sell a Home This June

June is a busy month in the housing market because a lot of people buy and sell this time of year. So, if you’ve got a move on your mind and you’re looking to make it happen this month, here’s a snapshot of what you need to know to make sure you’re ready.

If You’re Buying This June

A lot of homebuyers with children like to move after one school year ends and before the next one begins. That’s one reason why late spring into summer is a popular time for homes to change hands. And whether that’s a motivator for you or not, it’s important to realize more buyers are going to be looking right now – and that means you’ll want to be ready for a bit more competition. But there is a silver lining to a move this time of year. This is also when more sellers will list – so you should find you have more options. As an article from Bankrate says:

“Late spring and early summer are the busiest and most competitive time of year for the real estate market. There’s usually more inventory listed for sale than other times of year . . . This is a double-edged sword for a buyer, as you will be met with more opportunities but [also] much more competition.”

During this busy season, it’s extra important to work with a trusted real estate agent. Your agent will help you stay on top of the latest listings, share expertise on how to make a strong offer in a competitive market, and give you insight into things like what the home is actually worth so you can make an informed decision when you buy. As Forbes says:

“Approaching the market confidently, armed with good information and grounded expectations will take you far. Don’t let the hustle of the market convince you to buy something that’s not in your budget, or not right for your lifestyle.”

If You’re Selling This June

Because there are more buyers this time of year, you’re in a great spot as a seller. Many of those buyers are highly motivated to make their move happen before the next school year kicks off – so they’ll likely put in strong offers to try to make that possible. That means, if your house shows well and is listed at market value, you could see your house sell faster or for a higher price. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR):

“Warmer weather and the end of the school year encourage more people to buy and sell, respectively. Buyers are looking to move and settle before the new school year begins, contributing to increased competition and, consequently, higher prices.”

You want to be sure you’ve got a great agent on your side to help you with the contingencies on those offers and any negotiations that take place so you can pick the best offer. Make sure you go over closing dates with your agent. Buyers trying to time their move with the school year may need to delay a bit or move faster. This can depend on the school calendar where you live. As U.S. News Real Estate explains:

“ . . if your house goes under contract in early summer, the buyer may ask for a delay in closing or move-in until the school year finishes or their current home has sold. Alternatively, a buyer later in summer may be looking to close quickly and move in under a month. Remain flexible to keep the deal running smoothly, and your buyer may be willing to throw in concessions, like covering some of your closing costs or overlooking the old roof.”

Bottom Line

If you’re looking to make a move this June, let’s chat so you know what to expect. We’ll come up with a plan that factors in current market conditions, but still works for you.

Home Prices Are Climbing in These Top Cities

Thinking about buying a home or selling your current one to find a better fit? If so, you might be wondering what’s going on with home prices these days. Here’s the scoop.

The latest national data from Case-Shiller and the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) shows they’re going up (see graphs below):

As you can see, home prices were rising for most of 2023. But over the course of December and January, they were virtually flat – which is pretty normal for that time of year.

But here’s what you need to know now. As of February, when the spring market kicked off, prices were on the rise again.

Home Prices Are Going Up in Most of America’s Top Cities

After seeing a jump in home prices nationally in February, you might be wondering if they’re going up in your area, too. While it depends on where you live, prices are rising in 18 of the top 20 cities Case-Shiller reports on in the monthly price index (see chart below):

Most experts also think home prices will keep rising and end the year on a high note. Forbes explains why:

“Even as mortgage rates have reached their highest level since November, persistent demand coupled with limited housing supply are key drivers pushing home values upward.”

How This Impacts You

• For Buyers: If you’re ready, willing, and able to buy a home, purchasing before prices go up even more might be a smart choice, since home values are expected to keep climbing.
• For Sellers: Prices are going up because there still aren’t enough homes available for sale right now compared to today’s buyer demand. So, if you work with an agent to price your house right, you might receive multiple offers and sell quickly.

Bottom Line

The data shows home prices are increasing nationally. Let’s chat to see exactly what’s going on with prices in our neighborhood.

Thinking of Selling? You Want an Agent with These Skills

Selling your house is a big decision. Your home is one of the biggest investments you’ve probably ever made, and it’s a place where you’ve created countless memories. That combo means there’s going to be a lot of emotions involved. You want someone who understands your perspective, knows what it feels like, and is an expert at helping homeowners just like you navigate the process of selling a home.

That’s where a good listing agent, also known as a seller’s agent, comes in. Here are just a few skills you’ll want your agent to have.

The Ability To Turn Something Complex into Something Simple

Some agents are going to use big, fancy real estate terms to try and impress you. But you shouldn’t have to know all the industry jargon in order to understand what they’re saying. If anything, it’s an agent’s job to keep it simple, so you don’t get overwhelmed or confused.

A great agent is going to be someone who is very good at explaining what’s happening in the housing market in a way that’s easy to understand. But they’ll take it one step further than that. They’ll explain what’s going on and, specifically, what that means for you. That way you’re always in the loop and it’s a lot easier to feel confident when you’re making a big decision. As Business Insider explains:

“Maybe you have a better rapport with one of the agents you’re considering, or you just feel like they’re easier to approach. You’re going to be working closely with this person, so it’s important to choose an agent you’re comfortable with.”

A Data-Based Approach on How To Price Your House

While it may be tempting to pick the agent who suggests the highest asking price for your house, that strategy may cost you. It’s easy to get caught up in the excitement when you see a bigger number, but overpricing your house can have consequences. It could mean your house will sit on the market longer because the higher price is actually turning away buyers.

Instead, partner with an agent who’s going to have an open conversation about how they recommend you should price your house. They won’t throw out a number just to win your listing. A great agent will back up their number with solid data, explain their pricing strategy, and make sure you’re both on the same page. As NerdWallet explains:

“An agent who recommends the highest price isn’t always the best choice. Choose an agent who backs up the recommendation with market knowledge.”

A Fair, but Objective Negotiator

The home-selling process can be emotional, especially if you’ve been in your house for a long time. But that sentimental tie can make it harder to be objective during negotiations. That’s where a trusted professional can really make a difference.

They’re skilled negotiators who know how to stay calm under pressure. You can count on them to handle the back-and-forth and have your best interests at heart throughout the process. Not to mention, they’ll be able to rely on their market expertise and what they’re seeing work in other transactions to offer the best advice possible. As Rocket Mortgage explains:

“Whether this is your first or third time selling a house, listing agents work to help make the home selling process smoother and less stressful. These real estate professionals know the ins and outs of the industry and can help you secure the best deal.”

Bottom Line

Whether you’re a first-time seller or you’ve been through this before, a great listing agent is the key to your success. Let’s connect so you have a skilled local expert by your side to guide you through every step of the process.

Now’s a Great Time To Sell Your House

Thinking about selling your house? If you are, you might be weighing factors like today’s mortgage rates and your own changing needs to figure out your next move.

Here’s something else to consider. According to the latest Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) from Fannie Mae, the percent of respondents who say it’s a good time to sell is on the rise (see graph below):

Why Are Sellers Feeling so Optimistic?

One reason why is because right now is traditionally the best time of year to sell a house. A recent article from Bankrate says:

“Late spring and early summer are generally considered the best times to sell a house. . . . While today’s rates are relatively high, low inventory is still keeping sellers in the driver’s seat in most markets.”

These are the seasons when most people move. That means buyer demand grows. And because there still aren’t enough homes for sale to meet that demand, sellers see some serious perks. According to Rocket Mortgage:

“Homes that are listed at the end of spring and the beginning of summer typically sell faster at a higher sales price.”

What Does This Mean for You?

More sellers are coming to realize conditions are ripe for a move. And that’s one reason why we’re seeing more homeowners put their homes up for sale. If you think you might want to get in on the action, it’s a good idea to start preparing.

A local real estate agent can help you get your house ready by offering advice on how best to fix it up and make it appealing to buyers in your area.

They also know if you list during the peak buying seasons of spring and early summer, you might sell quickly and for a higher price.

Bottom Line

If you list during the spring and early summer, you might sell your house quickly and for a higher price. When you’re ready to make the most of today’s seller’s market, let’s get in touch.

What You Really Need To Know About Home Prices

According to recent data from Fannie Mae, almost 1 in 4 people still think home prices are going to come down. If you’re one of the people worried about that, here’s what you need to know.

A lot of that fear is probably coming from what you’re hearing in the media or reading online. But here’s the thing to remember. Negative news sells. That means, you may not be getting the full picture. You may only be getting the clickbait version. As Jay Thompson, a Real Estate Industry Consultant, explains:

“Housing market headlines are everywhere. Many are quite sensational, ending with exclamation points or predicting impending doom for the industry. Clickbait, the sensationalizing of headlines and content, has been an issue since the dawn of the internet, and housing news is not immune to it.”

Here’s a look at the data to set the record straight.

Home Prices Rose the Majority of the Past Year

Case-Shiller releases a report each month on the percent of monthly home price changes. If you look at their data from January 2023 through the latest numbers available, here’s what you’d see:

What do you notice when you look at this graph? It depends on what color you’re more drawn to. If you look at the green, you’ll see home prices rose for the majority of the past year.

But, if you’re drawn to the red, you may only focus on the two slight declines. This is what a lot of media coverage does. Since negative news sells, drawing attention to these slight dips happens often. But that loses sight of the bigger picture.

Here’s what this data really says. There’s a lot more green in that graph than red. And even for the two red bars, they’re so slight, they’re practically flat. If you look at the year as a whole, home prices still rose overall.

It’s perfectly normal in the housing market for home price growth to slow down in the winter. That’s because fewer people move during the holidays and at the start of the year, so there’s not as much upward pressure on home prices during that time. That’s why, even the green bars toward the end of the year show smaller price gains.

The overarching story is that prices went up last year, not down.

To sum all that up, the source for that data in the graph above, Case Shiller, explains it like this:

“Month-over-month numbers were relatively flat, . . . However, the annual growth was more significant for both indices, rising 7.4 percent and 6.6 percent, respectively.”

If one of the expert organizations tracking home price trends says the very slight dips are nothing to worry about, why be concerned? Even Case-Shiller is drawing your attention to how those were virtually flat and how home prices actually grew over the year.

Bottom Line

The data shows that, as a whole, home prices rose over the past year. If you have questions about what’s happening with home prices in our area, let’s chat.

Hello,   Call me for all your real estate questions.

Why Homeownership is a Hedge Against Inflation

Sellers Compete on Condition as Builders Ramp Up New Permits

For Buyers:
Inflation is a hot topic today. Talk to any investor about hedging inflation and they may bring up strategies that include gold, commodities, rentals, or even cryptocurrency. For young adults, however, the first step towards hedging inflation is typically moving out of a rental and into homeownership. Let’s discuss why.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is arguably the most quoted inflation measure in mainstream media. Most readers assume the main driving forces of the CPI are food and energy. They make up 20% of the weight, so that’s a fair assumption. However, it’s shelter costs that are weighted the heaviest of all the categories at 36%, specifically the cost to rent. Nowhere in the CPI does the cost to purchase a home come into the equation because there is no rent to pay if it’s purchased with cash, or the cost is fixed for 30yrs if there’s a mortgage.

So while the Consumer Price Index has increased 5.4% since June 2022, once shelter is removed the increase is only 2.1%. One could argue that this is the 2-year inflation rate for those who own their primary residence versus rent, which accounts for roughly 64% of all households in Maricopa County.

For Sellers:
It’s the peak Spring buying season in Greater Phoenix, although it may not feel like it for some sellers. The housing market has begun to drift towards another balanced state over the past 4 weeks, which is the result of an accumulation of supply as demand remains weak. Listings under contract are only down 6% compared to last year, but active listings are up 26%. Days prior to an accepted contract would be 3 weeks at this time of year normally, but current conditions are adding an extra week for sellers.

Word on the street is resale homes needing to be remodeled or updated are sitting a bit longer as builders are ramping up permits for new homes. In fact, single family permit activity is up 125% year over year for January and February and-new home sales are up 16%, surpassing 2021 (the previous 10-year high mark). The competition isn’t just for the sub $500K market either. Luxury new home sales over $3M are up 79% so far this year and up 28% between $1M-$3M.

The struggle for resale listings that need paint, carpet, or significant changes is that fewer traditional buyers have the capacity to finance a remodeling project with current rates, or they may not be able to visualize the space any other way, or they may think the cost and time for basic renovations is greater than it is. As far as investor purchases go, wholesale offers are due to get uglier with increased holding costs, stagnating monthly appreciation, and smaller returns. Flip sales are down 74% from 2 years ago and at a level comparable to 2015.

Whether it’s getting quotes for work, renditions to help with visualization, or advising the seller on the most important updates to make prior to listing, it’s markets like this where professional representation and feedback makes a difference for both sellers and buyers. Despite current challenges, sellers are averaging 97.8% of their last list price at close of escrow so far this month. Seller-paid closing-cost assistance is down 2% to 44% of sales, and the median sales price increased to $444,900, up 6% from last year.

The Cromford Report

Shawn Keane
shawn.keane@azmoves.com

602.989.3209 Direct

480.291.1600 Office

My Website–Find Your Dream Home

The Top 5 Reasons You Need a Real Estate Agent when Buying a Home

You may have heard headlines in the news lately about agents in the real estate industry and discussions about their commissions. And if you’re following along, it can be pretty confusing. But here’s the thing you really need to know – expert advice from a trusted real estate agent is priceless, now more than ever. And here’s why.

A real estate agent does a lot more than you may realize.

Your agent is the person who will guide you through every step when buying a home and look out for your best interests along the way. They smooth out a complex process and take away the bulk of the stress of what’s likely your largest purchase ever. And that’s exactly what you want and deserve.

This is at least a part of the reason why a recent survey from Bright MLS found an overwhelming majority of people agree an agent is a key part of the homebuying process (see visual below):

To give you a better idea of just a few of the top ways agents add value, check out this list.

1. Deliver Industry Experience

The right agent – the professional – will coach you through everything from start to finish. With professional training and expertise, agents know the ins and outs of the buying process. And in today’s complex market, the way real estate transactions are executed is constantly changing, so having the best advice on your side is essential.

2. Provide Expert Local Knowledge

In a world that’s powered by data, a great agent can clarify what it all means, separate fact from fiction, and help you understand how current market trends apply to your unique search. From how quickly homes are selling to the latest listings you don’t want to miss, they can explain what’s happening in your specific local market so you can make a confident decision.

3. Explain Pricing and Market Value

Agents help you understand the latest pricing trends in your area. What’s a home valued at in your market? What should you think about when you’re making an offer? Is this a house that might have issues you can’t see on the surface? No one wants to overpay, so having an expert who really gets true market value for individual neighborhoods is priceless. An offer that’s both fair and competitive in today’s housing market is essential, and a local expert knows how to help you hit the mark.

4. Review Contracts and Fine Print

In a fast-moving and heavily regulated process, agents help you make sense of the necessary disclosures and documents, so you know what you’re signing. Having a professional that’s trained to explain the details could make or break your transaction, and is certainly something you don’t want to try to figure out on your own.

5. Bring Negotiation Expertise

From offer to counteroffer and inspection to closing, there are a lot of stakeholders involved in a real estate transaction. Having someone on your side who knows you and the process makes a world of difference. An agent will advocate for you as they work with each party. It’s a big deal, and you need a partner at every turn to land the best possible outcome.

Bottom Line

Real estate agents are specialists, educators, and negotiators. They adjust to market changes and keep you informed. And keep in mind, every time you make a big decision in your life, especially a financial one, you need an expert on your side.

Expert advice from a trusted professional is priceless. Let’s connect today.

Hello,

Market Summary for the Beginning of March

Here are the basics – the ARMLS numbers for March 1, 2024 compared with March 1, 2023 for all areas & types:

• Active Listings: 16,568 versus 14,739 last year – up 12% – and up 6.4% from 15,574 last month
• Under Contract Listings: 8,693 versus 9,109 last year – down 4.6% – but up 17% from 7,423 last month
• Monthly Sales: 5,720 versus 5,706 last year – up 0.2% – and up 29% from 4,435 last month
• Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $293.70 versus $271.11 last year – up 8.3% – and up 1.7% from $288.74 last month
• Monthly Median Sales Price: $440,000 versus $413,000 last year – up 6.5% – and up 2.3% from $430,000 last month

This set of numbers is a little disappointing, but by no means disastrous. On the bright side, closed listing counts for February 2024 managed to exceed February 2023, but only by 0.2%. This is not the recovery in volume that so many are impatiently hoping for. Also brighter, sales pricing performed better than anticipated and was up 1.7% from last month based on the monthly average sales price per square foot. The monthly median sale price rose by $10,000 too. However, the rate at which contracts are getting signatures is lower than we expected and much lower than normal. We are starting March with only 8,693 listings under contract, down 4.6% from this time last year. And last year was well below normal.

The slow contract signing rate means active listing counts have continued to grow steadily, up by 2,000 since the start of the year. Last year we saw a fall of over 1,500 over the same period, because new supply was much scarcer then. It was the decline in supply that allowed us to scoff a year ago when Goldman Sachs published their ludicrous forecast that Arizona home prices would fall to 2008 levels in 2023. That certainly proved they had no idea what they were talking about. Prices are now up 8.3% from this time last year. But I suppose we should not be surprised – Goldman Sachs also had a “conviction buy” rating on Wirecard in 2019, the same company that declared insolvency 9 months later when their auditors finally spotted that over $2 billion in Wirecard’s cash account did not actually exist. But I digress.

There is still no sign of a market crash in the short or medium term, but the market is struggling to gain traction. The healthy amount of incoming supply is not quite matched by a small improvement in demand and the balance between sellers and buyers only favors sellers by a small amount when considering the market as a whole. In many sectors of the market, buyers have more negotiating room, even though, judging by the recent price movements, most of them do not seem to realize this.

At the top end of the market we have a lot of supply.

• Over $10 million, there are 76 active listings – this is 2.6 years of supply at the current closing rate of 29 per year.
• Between $5 million and $10 million, there are 221 active listings – this is 16 months of supply at the current closing rate of 164 per year.
• Between $3 million and $5 million, there are 319 active listings – this is 8 months of supply at the current closing rate of 455 per year.

In certain outlying areas, we also have plenty of active listings. Examples include Casa Grande, Maricopa and Buckeye. But many cities that are closer to Phoenix and are dominated by homes under $1 million still have a tight supply and buyers outnumber sellers in most of these areas.

Market conditions are currently quite stable, so the idea that some sort of collapse is imminent is extremely far-fetched. However conditions can and often do change with little notice, so it is always worth keeping a close eye on the key numbers. At least once a week would be our suggestion.

Go to my website for up-to-date information and a special feature called “Neighborhood News” “the best way to stay connected to what’s happening in the real estate market in your area”.  See homes that are for sale and recently sold, find out if home sales in your neighborhood are trending up or down, see what homes around you are currently selling for.  Also, you can search real time listings in any area of the market under (Find Your Dream Home.)  Check it out and stay updated with my daily blog and monthly market report that I send out monthly.  My Website–Find Your Dream Home

If you’re considering selling or buying, give me a call to discuss your situation and current market conditions.

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