Market Summary for the Beginning of March 2025

Here are the basics – the ARMLS numbers for March 1, 2025 compared with March 1, 2024 for all areas & types:

Active Listings: 23,934 versus 16,568 last year – up 44% – and up 6.7% from 22,432 last month
Under Contract Listings: 8,471 versus 8,693 last year – down 2.6% – but up 14% from 7,403 last month
Monthly Sales: 5,745 versus 5,757 last year – down 0.2% – but up 21% from 4,733 last month
Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $312.54 versus $292.55 last year – up 6.8% – but down 0.3% from $313.55 last month
Monthly Median Sales Price: $459,000 versus $430,000 last year – up 6.7% – and up 1.28% from $453,500 last month

There were 20 working days in February 2025 and 21 in February 2024, so we should allow for the fact that there was 4.8% less time for title companies to close transactions in 2025. In this light, the sales numbers in 2025 look more positive.

The active listing counts continue to rise but at least they did not rise quite as fast as in January. Interest rates have eased to around 6.75% for the 30 year fixed, and demand has started to improve. The problem for sellers is that supply is growing faster than demand so getting a successful sale gets a little harder each day. Conversely for buyers, their negotiation leverage gets a little better each day.

None of this applies to the very top end of the market which is running under new rules. There is strong demand for ultra-luxury homes from wealthy buyers who pay scant attention to interest rates. The activity at this level is skewing the average price per sq. ft. which would be much lower if sales over $3 million are excluded. There were 73 closed sales over $3 million, just over 1% of all transactions, but excluding them drops the average $/SF by 7% to $291 from $313. Those 73 sales over $3 million closed at an average of $882 per sq. ft.

Pricing is under downward pressure in areas with a large excess of supply, such as Maricopa, Buckeye and other outlying areas with plenty of new builds for re-sale homes to compete with. But in much of the market pricing is holding strong. Even in a balanced market we would expect home prices to rise with inflation. We anticipate inflation to increase in 2025 from the more moderate pace of 2024. Source Cromford Report

There are currently 44% more single-family detached listings available for sale across Greater Phoenix than one year ago; however, this figure applies to all price ranges. When examining individual price ranges, we observe the following:

Under $350,000, we have 70% more.

Between $350,000 and $600,000, we have 51% more.

Between $600,000 and 1 million, we have 38% more.

Between 1 million and 3 million, we have 20% more.

Between 3 million and 7.5 million, we have 21% more.

Over 7.5 million, we have 4% less than a year ago.

As you can see, inventory has increased at $600,000 and down; most areas are currently experiencing a buyer’s or balanced market. However, Cave Creek and Goodyear are leaning toward a seller’s market, although this situation can change. As mentioned earlier, the luxury market is in a different class. Will our busy spring season shift other areas towards a seller’s market? Right now, supply is higher than demand, and this needs to change. Lower mortgage rates will help improve the situation, as mortgage applications have surged in recent weeks due to a decrease of about 0.5% in rates.

Sellers are currently negotiating and, on average, are offering concessions. It’s essential to market your home effectively by ensuring it is move-in ready and presents well. This is not the time to overprice your home, as buyers have many more options available to them.

I can assist you in selling your home, using my proven marketing strategy and resources to prepare your home for the market and ensure it sells for top dollar.

Call me to discuss your situation if you’re considering selling or buying