Housing Market Summary (September 2026)

The Numbers:

Active Listings: 23,674 versus 23,549 last year – up 0.5% – but down 1.6% from 24,049 last month

Under Contract: 7,307 versus 7,260 last year – up 0.6% – up 2.3% from 7,146 last month

Closed Monthly Sales: 5,606 versus 5,941 last year – down 5.6% – down 13% from 6,444 last month

Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $291.53 versus $280.83 last year – up 3.8% and down 1.9% from $297.18 last month

Monthly Median Sales Price: 445,000 versus $442,540 last year – up 0.7% and down 1.4% from $452,000 last month

Pricing has softened further. The average price per square foot fell 1.9% to $291.53, though it remains 3.8% above August 2025. The median sales price slipped 1.4% for the month to $445,500, and its annual gain has narrowed to 0.7% from 2.3% a month ago. Sellers achieved 97.24% of list price, essentially unchanged from last month and last year. This follows the path we anticipated last month, and we expect prices to stay soft through the rest of September and into October. The recovery in pending and under-contract counts is the more encouraging signal, and if it holds, we expect closed sales to steady from November onward as the luxury segment contributes more to the mix.

Sellers need to earn buyer attention: Pricing, condition, presentation, and willingness to negotiate matter more when buyers have alternatives.

The balance could change if affordability improves: Much of today’s buyer advantage comes from weak demand. If mortgage rates fall enough to bring sidelined buyers back, competition could pick up quickly.

 A buyer’s market doesn’t guarantee falling prices: Many owners have substantial equity and little pressure to sell, which could limit how far prices adjust.

Buyers are gaining negotiating power, but the market varies significantly by neighborhood and price range.

Nationwide, buyers are benefiting from increased inventory and less competition. However, high home prices and affordability challenges continue to keep many potential buyers on the sidelines.

In the Phoenix metro area, this means active buyers may have more opportunities to negotiate price, repairs, closing costs, and other terms—especially when sellers face competition from other listings.

What this means for Phoenix sellers:

• Pricing your home competitively is more important than ever.
• Condition, presentation, and marketing can make a significant difference.
• Buyers have more options, so sellers need to make their properties stand out.

What this means for buyers:

• You may have more time to compare homes and negotiate favorable terms.
• Don’t assume every property is overpriced or that prices are necessarily falling.
• Market conditions can vary considerably from one neighborhood to another.

Looking ahead: If mortgage rates decline enough to bring more buyers back into the market, competition could increase. However, strong homeowner equity and limited motivation to sell may help support home values.

Summer is generally slow; no exception this year, just slower than usual. The luxury market (higher end) has performed much better than the overall market because buyers in this segment are not influenced by interest rates and usually pay cash. I expect a higher-end supply to start arriving now that we are in September.

Bottom line: Phoenix is a diverse market. The best strategy depends on your specific neighborhood, price range, and individual real estate goals.

If you’re considering buying or selling, I’m happy to provide a market analysis specific to your property and neighborhood.

Here is an interesting fact:  Did you know that six of eight Greater Phoenix regions, and the entire under-$2M Single Family Detached market with them, peaked in the first half of 2022 and have been giving up ground in real terms ever since, roughly 13 to 22% after adjusting for inflation, depending on where you look. The $2M+ tier is a different market: it kept gaining real value into early 2023, it’s still near an all-time high in nominal terms, and more buyers are closing on it than at any point in the last four years. So we have two different markets, and averaging them together is exactly what is making the average versus median skew far larger than is normal. Is this a K-shaped economy?

🏡 Understanding the Fed, Mortgage Rates, and the Housing Market

There’s a lot of concern about the Federal Reserve raising interest rates .25% today. However, a rate hike doesn’t automatically mean mortgage rates will increase.

The key distinction: The Fed’s interest rate is not the same as your mortgage rate. Mortgage rates are primarily influenced by the 10-year Treasury yield, inflation expectations, and investor confidence in the bond market.

When inflation remains a concern, mortgage rates can rise—even when the Fed is cutting rates. We’ve seen instances where Fed rate cuts were followed by increases in mortgage rates.

A Fed rate hike could signal that policymakers are taking inflation seriously, which may help ease inflation concerns and support more stable mortgage rates over time. However, this is not guaranteed, and the immediate market reaction can vary.

It’s also important to remember that while many people are hoping for lower interest rates, significant rate cuts often occur when the economy and job market are weakening. Lower mortgage rates may be less helpful if economic conditions make it harder for buyers to qualify for a loan or maintain their income.

Bottom line: Mortgage rates depend on much more than the Fed’s decisions. Inflation, Treasury yields, and overall economic conditions all play a role.

I believe mortgage rates will stabilize here in the 7% range and move lower in the coming months! This will spur buyer demand for homes….

As always, understanding the bigger economic picture can help buyers and sellers make more informed real estate decisions.

If you’d like, I can put together a quick, custom market snapshot based on your neighborhood, price range, nearby sales, and current stats, so you can see exactly what’s happening around you and how it relates to your home.

Stay cool, and remember I’m always just a phone call away if you have any real estate questions or needs. Whether you’re thinking about buying, selling, investing, or simply want to talk through the market, I’m always happy to help.