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The Numbers:
Active Listings: 24,049 versus 24,091 last year – down 0.2% – and down 2.1% from 24,566 last month
Under Contract: 7,146 versus 7,369 last year – down 3.0% – but down 12.3% from 8,144 last month
Closed Monthly Sales: 6,417 versus 6,214 last year – up 3.3% – but down 11.7% from 7,268 last month
Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $296.14 versus $284.97 last year – up 3.9% and down 2.2% from $302.73 last month
Monthly Median Sales Price: 452,000 versus $441,995 last year – up 2.3% and down 0.7% from $454,990 last month
The market in early August presents a more mixed picture than we saw a month ago. Compared with July 2025, the completed numbers still look good — closed listings, average $/SF, median sales price, the annual sales rate and monthly dollar volume are all higher. But the forward-looking measures have turned: listings under contract, pending listings and the contract ratio are all below where they stood a year ago. That is a change from last month, when every metric on this table compared favorably with a year earlier, and it deserves attention.
Supply continues to drift lower. Active listings fell 2.1% over the month to 24,049 and are now marginally below the count of a year ago. Days of inventory eased to 127.1, down from 132.4 a month ago and 136.0 this time last year. The seasonal pattern is familiar: sellers who have not found a buyer through the hottest part of the summer tend to withdraw and wait for cooler weather and more active buyers in the fall. This effect is most significant in the luxury segment and in 55+ communities. The regular market in the low and lower mid-range is seeing a rise in inventory since last month. The fall in the listing success rate, from 69.9% to 59.5%, tells a negative story — a far larger share of sellers left the market during July without a sale.
Demand weakened over the month by rather more than the headline suggests. Closed listings fell 11.7% from June to July, but July had 22 working days against June’s 21. Adjusting for that, closings per working day were down closer to 16%. The comparison with July 2025 is cleaner, since both months had 22 working days, and on that basis closings are up 3.3%. The annual comparison therefore remains positive even though momentum through the summer has clearly slowed.
Pricing is holding up better than transaction counts. The average price per square foot slipped 2.2% over the month but remains 3.9% above July 2025, and the median sales price is down just 0.7% for the month while staying 2.3% higher than a year ago. Sellers are still achieving 97.34% of list price, fractionally better than both last month and last year, which suggests those who do transact are negotiating from a reasonable position. The overall picture is a market that is quiet and seasonally subdued rather than one under stress — but the weakness in pending and under-contract counts means we should not assume a strong autumn recovery. We anticipate prices getting weaker over the next 6 to 8 weeks, but a rebound is likely once the luxury market makes a bigger contribution to the mix from October onwards.
New homes accounted for 16.3% of the Maricopa County market in July, down from 20.6% this time last year. That is a 4.3 percentage-point decline, meaning new homes have given up more than a fifth of their market share in twelve months. The one crumb of comfort for builders is that share edged up from June’s 15.8%. We anticipate closing volumes staying soft through August and September, with the median drifting slightly lower in nominal terms, though the usual seasonal change in mix should lend some support to prices from October onwards.
Now that the ROAD to Housing Act is law, its effects are unlikely to be felt immediately in Greater Phoenix’s mainstream resale market. Most provisions focus on reducing construction costs, easing regulations, expanding financing through community banks and updated HUD programs, and providing grants or forgivable loans to improve aging housing stock. The 350-home institutional ownership limit, with exceptions, may help reduce future bubble risk, but should have little near-term impact given the low level of institutional participation in resale purchases.
As for new home development, don’t expect an immediate surge. Builders know the risks of adding too much supply before demand improves. New home permits remain 37% below their 2021 peak, roughly back to the pre-Covid 2019 pace, while total MLS inventory is considered normal. Outlying areas where builders operate remain buyer’s markets, while established internal cities are in weak-to-moderate seller’s markets. Expect builders to remain cautious, but with greater flexibility to ramp up construction as demand improves.
If you’d like, I can put together a quick, custom market snapshot based on your neighborhood, price range, nearby sales, and current stats, so you can see exactly what’s happening around you and how it relates to your home.
Stay cool, and remember I’m always just a phone call away if you have any real estate questions or needs. Whether you’re thinking about buying, selling, investing, or simply want to talk through the market, I’m always happy to help.
All the best!
