July Phoenix Area Housing Market Update 2026

Overall Housing Market Summary (Beginning of July 2026) The Numbers: Active Listings: 24,566 versus 25,683 last year – down 4.3% – and down 3.6% from 25,488 last month Under Contract: 8,144 versus 7,702 last year – up 5.7% – but down 4.5% from 8,532 last month Closed Monthly Sales: 7,257 versus 6,647 last year – up 9.2% – but down 3.9% from 7549 last month Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $302.56 versus $293.25 last year – up 3.2% and up 0.7% from $300.56 last month Monthly Median Sales Price: 454,990 versus $450,000 last year – up 1.1% but the same as $455,000 last month The Monthly average Sales Price per SQ’ does not represent the overall market because the luxury market is doing exceedingly well, thereby driving the average sq’ price up. June 2026 had 21 working days, one more than June 2025 and May 2026. This means it would be fair to expect 5% more closings than for both the month-over-month and year-over-year comparisons. The resale closings far exceeded that target, up 12.3% year-over-year, but new home sales were very weak, down more than 20%. The combined result was +5.6%, just squeaking past the target and a cause for relief and mild celebration. The month-over-month closings were not so impressive, with all metrics down despite June’s 5% advantage over May. The Big Picture* The Greater Phoenix housing market is healthier than it was a year ago, but it isn’t booming. It’s a steady, balanced market with modest improvements. What’s Happening There are fewer homes for sale than both last month and last year, giving sellers a little less competition. Buyers are still purchasing homes, although activity has slowed slightly from June as it normally does during the summer. More homes are selling than they were a year ago. Home prices have remained remarkably stable. What This Means For Sellers: Better conditions than last summer, but pricing your home correctly still matters. For Buyers: More negotiating opportunities than during the frenzy of 2021-2022, but prices are holding steady rather than falling. Bottom Line: The market is balanced and healthy—not a seller’s market like the pandemic years, but not a market experiencing significant price declines either. Maricopa County Sales Statistics The Big Picture Resale homes are driving the market while new construction has slowed considerably. What’s Happening Existing home sales increased over 12% compared to last year. New home sales dropped more than 20%. Builders are selling fewer homes than they did in 2025. Overall home prices are essentially flat. Why It Matters Buyers are choosing resale homes over new construction much more often than they were a year ago. Possible reasons include: Better value in resale homes Builders offering fewer incentives Buyers finding more inventory in existing homes Bottom Line: The resale market is carrying the housing market while builders are experiencing a much slower year. 3. Current Trends Strongest Seller Markets Fountain Hills Scottsdale Paradise Valley Chandler Balanced Markets Mesa Phoenix Peoria Tempe Best Markets for Buyers Queen Creek Buckeye Maricopa Surprise Goodyear San Tan Valley Sun City Sun City West Sun City Festival (Buckeye) What It Means Luxury communities have strengthened mostly because many sellers temporarily removed listings for the summer—not because buyer demand exploded. Overall, the Luxury market has performed very well, driven by stock market gains and AI startups. Bottom Line: Some cities strongly favor sellers, but many suburban communities now offer buyers much more negotiating power than a year ago. 4. National Home Price Comparison (Case-Shiller Index) The Big Picture Phoenix has become one of the weaker housing markets among major U.S. cities. What’s Happening Phoenix home prices were down about 1.7% from last year. Nationally, home prices rose slightly. Only one major city performed worse than Phoenix. Important Context The Case-Shiller Index reports sales from several months ago, so it doesn’t reflect today’s market conditions. Also, inflation has been running above 4%, meaning: Although Phoenix prices are only slightly lower, homes have become much more affordable in “real” (inflation-adjusted) terms over the past few years. Bottom Line: Phoenix isn’t crashing—it simply isn’t appreciating as quickly as many other cities. 5. Apartment Market (Multi-Family Construction) The Big Picture Apartment construction has slowed dramatically after years of overbuilding. What’s Happening Apartment permits are down more than 60% from their 2023 peak. Thousands of new apartment units are still being completed. Vacancy rates remain high. Rent concessions (free rent, move-in specials) remain common. Why? Builders added too many apartments during the migration boom of 2021-2023. Now: Supply exceeds demand. Financing is more expensive. Lower rents make new projects less profitable. Looking Ahead Experts expect: Rent growth to return sometime between late 2026 and mid-2027. East Valley and North Scottsdale to recover first. Downtown Phoenix and Tempe may take longer due to oversupply. Bottom Line: Apartment renters still have leverage, but construction is slowing enough to help stabilize rents over the next year. 6. Secondary Cities Market The Big Picture Smaller cities continue to fluctuate more because fewer sales make statistics swing more dramatically. Highlights Improving for Sellers: Anthem Sun Lakes El Mirage Improving for Buyers: Tolleson Casa Grande Arizona City Bottom Line: Smaller communities are seeing more dramatic month-to-month changes, but the overall trend remains balanced. 7. Price Trends by Price Range The Biggest Story Not every price range has performed the same. Homes Under $500,000 Prices have declined about –7% since early 2023. $500,000-$1 Million Prices have been nearly flat. Declined slightly by -1.5% $1-3 Million Prices have risen modestly. Increased slightly by +4% Over $3 Million Luxury homes have appreciated roughly +17%. What This Means The biggest price weakness has occurred in entry-level housing, while luxury homes have remained surprisingly strong. Bottom Line: The higher the price point, the stronger the market has generally been. 8. Listings Under Contract Good News Throughout most of 2026: More homes have gone under contract than during both 2024 and 2025. Although activity normally slows during the summer, buyer demand has remained stronger than last year. Moderate to down for Active Adult communities. Bottom Line: Buyers are still active even though the market feels quieter than during the pandemic years. Overall Takeaways For Buyers You’re in one of the best negotiating environments in several years. Inventory is healthier than during the pandemic. Prices are generally stable rather than rising rapidly. Certain cities (Queen Creek, Buckeye, Maricopa, Surprise) offer particularly favorable conditions. For Sellers Homes are still selling. Proper pricing is so critical. Homes need to show well, or the buyer will move on to the next. Competition has eased slightly because fewer homes are on the market. Well-priced homes continue to attract buyers. Do NOT over-price; in this market, it will go against you in the long run. For Investors Single-family homes remain relatively stable. Apartment investments are still working through an oversupply cycle. Rent growth is likely to remain modest until late 2026 or 2027.
Updated Overall Market Pulse: 8/10 The Greater Phoenix housing market continues to show signs of stability and gradual improvement. Inventory has declined slightly, sales are stronger than they were a year ago, and home prices have remained largely unchanged. Buyers have more negotiating power than they did during the pandemic, particularly in entry-level communities, while sellers continue to benefit from limited inventory in many neighborhoods. Several concerns making headlines—including rising FHA delinquencies and increasing foreclosure filings—appear far less alarming when viewed in context. Most of the increase in delinquency rates stems from a reporting rule change, and foreclosure activity remains well below historical norms. Meanwhile, the apartment market is still working through an oversupply of new units, but construction has slowed enough to support a gradual recovery over the next year. Overall, the Phoenix-area real estate market is best described as balanced, resilient, and slowly strengthening. It lacks the rapid appreciation of the pandemic years, but it also shows few signs of a significant downturn, making it a healthier and more sustainable market for buyers, sellers, and investors alike. If you want, I can put together a quick, custom breakdown based on your neighborhood, price range, nearby sales and stats so you can see exactly what’s happening around you right now, more specific to your home. “Wishing you a fantastic summer filled with fun, travel, and plenty of ways to beat the Arizona heat! Stay cool, and remember that I’m just a phone call away if you have any real estate questions or needs. Whether you’re thinking about buying, selling, investing, or simply want to discuss the market, I’m always available to help.” Shawn Keane

Overall Housing Market Summary (Beginning of July 2026)

The Numbers:

*Active Listings: 24,566 versus 25,683 last year – down 4.3% – and down 3.6% from 25,488 last month

*Under Contract: 8,144 versus 7,702 last year – up 5.7% – but down 4.5% from 8,532 last month

*Closed Monthly Sales: 7,257 versus 6,647 last year – up 9.2% – but down 3.9% from 7549 last month

*Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $302.56 versus $293.25 last year – up 3.2% and up 0.7% from $300.56 last month

*Monthly Median Sales Price: 454,990 versus $450,000 last year – up 1.1% but the same as $455,000 last month

The Monthly average Sales Price per SQ’ does not represent the overall market because the luxury market is doing exceedingly well, thereby driving the average sq’ price up.

June 2026 had 21 working days, one more than June 2025 and May 2026. This means it would be fair to expect 5% more closings than for both the month-over-month and year-over-year comparisons. The resale closings far exceeded that target, up 12.3% year-over-year, but new home sales were very weak, down more than 20%. The combined result was +5.6%, just squeaking past the target and a cause for relief and mild celebration. The month-over-month closings were not so impressive, with all metrics down despite June’s 5% advantage over May.

The Big Picture

The Greater Phoenix housing market is healthier than it was a year ago, but it isn’t booming. It’s a steady, balanced market with modest improvements.

What’s Happening

There are fewer homes for sale than both last month and last year, giving sellers a little less competition.
Buyers are still purchasing homes, although activity has slowed slightly from June as it normally does during the summer.
More homes are selling than they were a year ago.
Home prices have remained remarkably stable.

What This Means

For Sellers: Better conditions than last summer, but pricing your home correctly still matters.
For Buyers: More negotiating opportunities than during the frenzy of 2021-2022, but prices are holding steady rather than falling.

Bottom Line: The market is balanced and healthy—not a seller’s market like the pandemic years, but not a market experiencing significant price declines either.

Maricopa County Sales Statistics

The Big Picture

Resale homes are driving the market while new construction has slowed considerably.

What’s Happening

Existing home sales increased over 12% compared to last year.
New home sales dropped more than 20%.
Builders are selling fewer homes than they did in 2025.
Overall home prices are essentially flat.

Why It Matters

Buyers are choosing resale homes over new construction much more often than they were a year ago.

Possible reasons include:

Better value in resale homes
Builders offering fewer incentives
Buyers finding more inventory in existing homes

Bottom Line: The resale market is carrying the housing market while builders are experiencing a much slower year.

3. Current Trends

Strongest Seller Markets

Fountain Hills
Scottsdale
Paradise Valley
Chandler

Balanced Markets

Mesa
Phoenix
Peoria
Tempe

Best Markets for Buyers

Queen Creek
Buckeye
Maricopa
Surprise
Goodyear
San Tan Valley
Sun City
Sun City West
Sun City Festival (Buckeye)

What It Means

Luxury communities have strengthened mostly because many sellers temporarily removed listings for the summer—not because buyer demand exploded. Overall, the Luxury market has performed very well, driven by stock market gains and AI startups.

Bottom Line: Some cities strongly favor sellers, but many suburban communities now offer buyers much more negotiating power than a year ago.

4. National Home Price Comparison (Case-Shiller Index)

The Big Picture

Phoenix has become one of the weaker housing markets among major U.S. cities.

What’s Happening

Phoenix home prices were down about 1.7% from last year.
Nationally, home prices rose slightly.
Only one major city performed worse than Phoenix.

Important Context

The Case-Shiller Index reports sales from several months ago, so it doesn’t reflect today’s market conditions.

Also, inflation has been running above 4%, meaning:

Although Phoenix prices are only slightly lower, homes have become much more affordable in “real” (inflation-adjusted) terms over the past few years.

Bottom Line: Phoenix isn’t crashing—it simply isn’t appreciating as quickly as many other cities.

5. Apartment Market (Multi-Family Construction)

The Big Picture

Apartment construction has slowed dramatically after years of overbuilding.

What’s Happening

Apartment permits are down more than 60% from their 2023 peak.
Thousands of new apartment units are still being completed.
Vacancy rates remain high.
Rent concessions (free rent, move-in specials) remain common.

Why?

Builders added too many apartments during the migration boom of 2021-2023.

Now:

Supply exceeds demand.
Financing is more expensive.
Lower rents make new projects less profitable.

Looking Ahead

Experts expect:

Rent growth to return sometime between late 2026 and mid-2027.
East Valley and North Scottsdale to recover first.
Downtown Phoenix and Tempe may take longer due to oversupply.

Bottom Line: Apartment renters still have leverage, but construction is slowing enough to help stabilize rents over the next year.

6. Secondary Cities Market

The Big Picture

Smaller cities continue to fluctuate more because fewer sales make statistics swing more dramatically.

Highlights

Improving for Sellers:

Anthem
Sun Lakes
El Mirage

Improving for Buyers:

Tolleson
Casa Grande
Arizona City

Bottom Line: Smaller communities are seeing more dramatic month-to-month changes, but the overall trend remains balanced.

7. Price Trends by Price Range

The Biggest Story

Not every price range has performed the same.

Homes Under $500,000

Prices have declined about –7% since early 2023.

$500,000-$1 Million

Prices have been nearly flat. Declined slightly by -1.5%

$1-3 Million

Prices have risen modestly. Increased slightly by +4%

Over $3 Million

Luxury homes have appreciated roughly +17%.

What This Means

The biggest price weakness has occurred in entry-level housing, while luxury homes have remained surprisingly strong.

Bottom Line: The higher the price point, the stronger the market has generally been.

8. Listings Under Contract

Good News

Throughout most of 2026:

More homes have gone under contract than during both 2024 and 2025.

Although activity normally slows during the summer, buyer demand has remained stronger than last year. Moderate to down for Active Adult communities.

Bottom Line: Buyers are still active even though the market feels quieter than during the pandemic years.

Overall Takeaways

For Buyers

You’re in one of the best negotiating environments in several years.
Inventory is healthier than during the pandemic.
Prices are generally stable rather than rising rapidly.
Certain cities (Queen Creek, Buckeye, Maricopa, Surprise) offer particularly favorable conditions.

For Sellers

Homes are still selling.
Proper pricing is so critical. Homes need to show well, or the buyer will move on to the next.
Competition has eased slightly because fewer homes are on the market.
Well-priced homes continue to attract buyers. Do NOT over-price; in this market, it will go against you in the long run.

For Investors

Single-family homes remain relatively stable.
Apartment investments are still working through an oversupply cycle.
Rent growth is likely to remain modest until late 2026 or 2027.

Updated Overall Market Pulse: 8/10

The Greater Phoenix housing market continues to show signs of stability and gradual improvement. Inventory has declined slightly, sales are stronger than they were a year ago, and home prices have remained largely unchanged. Buyers have more negotiating power than they did during the pandemic, particularly in entry-level communities, while sellers continue to benefit from limited inventory in many neighborhoods.

Several concerns making headlines—including rising FHA delinquencies and increasing foreclosure filings—appear far less alarming when viewed in context. Most of the increase in delinquency rates stems from a reporting rule change, and foreclosure activity remains well below historical norms. Meanwhile, the apartment market is still working through an oversupply of new units, but construction has slowed enough to support a gradual recovery over the next year.

Overall, the Phoenix-area real estate market is best described as balanced, resilient, and slowly strengthening. It lacks the rapid appreciation of the pandemic years, but it also shows few signs of a significant downturn, making it a healthier and more sustainable market for buyers, sellers, and investors alike.

If you want, I can put together a quick, custom breakdown based on your neighborhood, price range, nearby sales and stats so you can see exactly what’s happening around you right now, more specific to your home.

“Wishing you a fantastic summer filled with fun, travel, and plenty of ways to beat the Arizona heat! Stay cool, and remember that I’m just a phone call away if you have any real estate questions or needs. Whether you’re thinking about buying, selling, investing, or simply want to discuss the market, I’m always available to help.”

Shawn Keane