Mortgage Rates August 9, 2024

Mortgage Rates Down a Full Percent from Recent High 8-24

Mortgage Rates Down a Full Percent from Recent High

Mortgage rates have been one of the hottest topics in the housing market lately because of their impact on affordability. And if you’re someone who’s looking to make a move, you’ve probably been waiting eagerly for rates to come down for that very reason. Well, if the past few weeks are any indication, you may be getting your wish.

Mortgage Rates Trend Down in Recent Weeks

There’s big news for mortgage rates. After the latest reports on the economy, inflation, the unemployment rate, and the Federal Reserve’s recent comments, mortgage rates started dropping a bit. And according to Freddie Mac, they’re now at a level we haven’t seen since February. To help show the downward trend, check out the graph below:

No Caption ReceivedMaybe you’re seeing this and wondering if you should ride the wave and see how low they’ll go. If that’s the case, here’s some important perspective. Remember, the record-low rates from the pandemic are a thing of the past. If you’re holding out hope to see a 3% mortgage rate again, you’re waiting for something experts agree won’t happen. As Greg McBride, Chief Financial Analyst at Bankratesays: 

“The hopes for lower interest rates need the reality check that ‘lower’ doesn’t mean we’re going back to 3% mortgage rates. . . the best we may be able to hope for over the next year is 5.5 to 6%.”

And with the decrease in recent weeks, you’ve got a big opportunity in front of you right now. It may be enough for you to want to jump back in.

The Relationship Between Rates and Demand 

If you wait for mortgage rates to drop further, you might find yourself dealing with more competition as other buyers re-ignite their home searches too.

In the housing market, there’s generally a relationship between mortgage rates and buyer demand. Typically, the higher rates are, the lower buyer demand is. But when rates start to come down, things change. Buyers who were on the fence over higher rates will resume their searches. Here’s what that means for you. As a recent article from Bankrate says:

If you’re ready to buy, now might be the time to strike. Home prices have been rising primarily because of a longstanding shortage of homes for sale. That’s unlikely to change, and if mortgage rates do fall below 6%, it’s possible buyers would enter the market en masse, further pushing up prices and resurrecting bidding wars.”

Bottom Line

If you’ve been waiting to make your move, the recent downward trend in mortgage rates may be enough to get you off the sidelines. Rates have hit their lowest point in months, and that gives you the opportunity to jump back in before all the other buyers do too.

If you’re ready and able to start the process, reach out and let’s get started.

My Monthly Market Summary August 6, 2024

Market Summary for the Beginning of August 2024

Market Summary for the Beginning of August

Good evening,

Overall, the Greater Phoenix housing market is neutral; however, more areas are slightly favoring buyers. With mortgage rates heading down to the 6% area this should fuel demand therefore decrease inventory as we saw last month, neutral scenario may flip again, we shall see.  If you’re considering selling or buying, please give me a call to discuss your situation and what’s important to you.

Here are the basics – the ARMLS numbers for August 1, 2024 compared with August 1, 2023 for all areas & types:

  • Active Listings: 17,677 versus 11,241 last year – up 55% – but down 3.6% from 18,121 last month
  • Under Contract Listings: 7,287 versus 7,546 last year – down 3.4% – and down 1.6% from 7,402 last month
  • Monthly Sales: 6,199 versus 5,915 last year – up 4.8% – but down 2.0% from 6,324 last month
  • Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $286.58 versus $281.97 last year – up 1.6% – but down 2.9% from $295.15 last month
  • Monthly Median Sales Price: $440,000 versus $434,900 last year – up 1.2% – but down 2.2% from $450,000 last month

There is very little positive about these numbers as the Greater Phoenix housing market continues to suffer from weak demand and low volumes. However, if you dig deeply, you can find some excuses for mild optimism. The supply has fallen over the past month and although it remains significantly higher than last year, it is now on a downward trend, at least for the short term. We also see a very slight up-tick in pending listings from last month, though this positive sign is counterbalanced by a decline in listings under contract.

At first the monthly sales count looks promising – up 4.8% from July 2023, but as there was 1 more working day in July 2024, this is largely an illusion. Closings remain far below normal levels and professions that get paid at closing continue to suffer from a shortage of revenue.

Though there are plenty of credit problems in other sectors (e.g. auto loans, credit cards), home loans are looking very healthy with delinquency stuck at low levels. This also means foreclosure volumes are very small and there is little sign of that changing in the near to medium term. You Tubers have been forecasting a new tsunami of foreclosures for over 5 years now and have managed to be 100% wrong. Those who would love to see more bank-owned homes enter the market are out of luck. There is also no sign of their luck changing in the near term.

Most pricing measures have fallen hard since May, but that is largely due to seasonal effects. This is particularly true of average active listing prices. This is because listings for luxury homes have been disappearing at great speed. Most were not sold. The majority were cancelled or expired. For example, the number of active listings over $2 million is down 22% over the past 2 months, while those over $7.5 million are down 42%.

Current pricing is only slightly ahead of this time last year, with the median sales price up only 1.2%. Most things have risen far more than 1.2% over the past 12 months, so homes are effectively cheaper in real terms than they were a year ago.

Mortgage rates have dropped hard over the last 3 days, with the average 30-year fixed rate down from 6.80% to 6.40%.. They could drop further if the Federal Reserve does as expected and lower the base rate at their September meeting. Nothing is certain, but it would be a fair guess that demand would pick up significantly if rates get back around the 6% mark.

Overall, the market is balanced with a slow and gentle trend towards greater bargaining power for buyers. However, now that supply is falling, it would only take a small increase in demand to reverse that trend.  Source Cromford Report

Please visit my website for up-to-date information, daily blog, monthly reports, seller and buyer guides and sign up for Neighborhood News “the best way to stay connected to what’s happening in the real estate market in your area”.  See homes that are for sale and recently sold, find out if home sales in your neighborhood are trending up or down, see what homes around you are currently selling for.  Also, you can search real time listings in any area of the market under SEARCH FOR HOMES.  Call or text me anytime 😊

The best compliment is a referral to your family and friends!  Thank you so much!

All the best,

Shawn Keane

 

Uncategorized August 5, 2024

The Biggest Mistakes Sellers Are Making Right Now 2024

The Biggest Mistakes Sellers Are Making Right Now

The housing market is going through a transition. Higher mortgage rates are causing more moderate buyer activity at the same time the supply of homes for sale is growing.

And if you aren’t working with an agent, you may not realize that. Here’s the downside. If you’re not informed, you can’t adjust your strategy or expectations to today’s market. And that can lead to a number of costly mistakes.

Here’s a look at some of the most common ones – and how an agent will help you avoid them when you sell.

1. Overpricing Your House

Many sellers set their asking price too high and that’s why there’s an uptick in homes with price reductions today. An unrealistic price will deter potential buyers, cause an appraisal issue, or lead to your house sitting on the market longer. An article from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) explains:

“Some sellers are pricing their homes higher than ever just because they can, but this may drive away serious buyers and result in unapproved appraisals . . .”

To avoid falling into this trap, partner with a pro. An agent uses recent sales of similar homes, the condition of your house, local market trends, and so much more to find the price that’ll attract more buyers and open the door for multiple offers and a faster sale.

2. Skipping the Small Stuff

You may try to skip important repairs, thinking you can pass the task on to your buyer. But visible issues (even if they’re small) can turn off potential buyers and result in lower offers or demands for concessions. As Money Talks News says:

“Home shoppers like to turn on lights, flush toilets and run the water. If these basic things don’t work, they may assume you’ve skipped other maintenance. Homes that appear neglected aren’t likely to fetch top price.”

If you want to get your house ready to sell, the best place to turn to for advice is your agent. They’ll be able to do a walk-through with you and point out anything you’ll need to tackle before the photographer comes in.

3. Not Looking at Things Objectively

Buyers today are feeling the pinch of high home prices and mortgage rates. With affordability that tight, they may come in with an offer that’s lower than you’d want to see – especially if you didn’t stage, price, or market the house well.

It’s important you don’t take this personally. Getting overly emotional can put the sale at risk. As an article from Ramsey Solutions says:

“Remember, a buyer’s offer is not a reflection of their opinion of your home or your housekeeping abilities. . . The sale of your home is strictly a business transaction. If they start out with a low offer, don’t take it personally and get emotional. Instead, channel that energy toward negotiating. Work with your agent and make a counteroffer.”

4. Being Unwilling To Negotiate

The supply of homes for sale has grown. That means buyers have more options, and with that comes more negotiation power. As a seller, you may see more buyers getting an inspection, requesting repairs, or asking for help with closing costs today. You need to be prepared to have those conversations. As U.S. News Real Estate explains:

“If you’ve received an offer for your house that isn’t quite what you’d hoped it would be, expect to negotiate . . . the only way to come to a successful deal is to make sure the buyer also feels like he or she benefits . . . consider offering to cover some of the buyer’s closing costs or agree to a credit for a minor repair the inspector found.”

An agent will walk you through what levers you may want to pull based on your own goals, budget, and timeframe.

5. Not Using a Real Estate Agent

Notice anything? For each of these mistakes, partnering with an agent helps prevent them from happening in the first place. That makes trying to sell your house without an agent’s help the biggest mistake of all.

Real estate agents have experience and expertise in pricing, marketing, negotiating, and more. That knowledge streamlines the selling process and usually results in drumming up more interest and ultimately can get you a higher final price.

Bottom Line

If you want to avoid making mistakes like these, let’s connect to make sure you’re set up for success.

Uncategorized August 5, 2024

Are Home Prices Going To Come Down? 8/2024

Are Home Prices Going To Come Down?

Today’s headlines and news stories about home prices are confusing and make it tough to know what’s really happening. Some say home prices are heading for a correction, but what do the facts say? Well, it helps to start by looking at what a correction means.

Here’s what Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.comsays:

 “In stock market terms, a correction is generally referred to as a 10 to 20% drop in prices . . . We don’t have the same established definitions in the housing market.

In the context of today’s housing market, it doesn’t mean home prices are going to fall dramatically. It only means prices, which have been increasing rapidly over the last couple years, are normalizing a bit. In other words, they’re now growing at a slower pace. Prices vary a lot by local market, but rest assured, a big drop off isn’t what’s happening at a national level.

The Real Estate Market Is Normalizing

From 2020 to 2022, home prices skyrocketed. That rapid increase was due to high demand, low interest rates, and a shortage of homes for sale. But, that kind of aggressive growth couldn’t continue forever.

Today, price growth has started to slow down, which is a sign the market is beginning to normalize. The most recent data from Case-Shiller shows that after being basically flat for a couple of months last year, prices are going up at a national level – just not as quickly as before (see graph below):

No Caption ReceivedThe big takeaway? So far this year, there’s been a much healthier pace of price growth compared to the pandemic.

Of course, that’s what’s happening now, but you may be wondering what’s next for prices. Marco Santarelli, the Founder of Norada Real Estate Investmentssays:

Expert forecasts lean towards a moderation in home price growth over the next five years. This translates to a slower and more sustainable pace of appreciation compared to the breakneck speed witnessed in recent years, rather than a freefall in prices.”

It’s all about supply and demand. Increasing inventory plus limited buyer demand, due to relatively high mortgage rates, will continue to ease some of the upward pressure on prices.

 What This Means for You

 If you’re thinking about buying a home, slowing price growth is welcome news. Skyrocketing home prices during the pandemic left many would-be homebuyers feeling priced-out.

While it’s still a good thing to know the value of the home you buy will likely continue to go up once you own it, slowing price gains are making things feel more manageable. Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First Americansays:

“While housing affordability is low for potential first-time home buyers, slowing price appreciation and lower mortgage rates could help — so the dream of homeownership isn’t boarded up just yet.”

Bottom Line

At the national level, home prices are not going down. And most experts forecast they’ll continue growing moderately moving forward. But prices vary a lot by local market. That’s where a trusted real estate agent comes into play. If you have questions about what’s happening with prices in our area, reach out.

Uncategorized August 5, 2024

3 Reasons Why We’re Not Headed for a Housing Crash 8/2024

3 Reasons Why We’re Not Headed for a Housing Crash

No Caption Received

Some Highlights

  • Back in 2008, there was an oversupply of homes for sale. Today, there’s an undersupply. The three main sources of inventory show this isn’t like the last time.
  • Existing homesnew homes, and foreclosures are all way below the levels we saw during the housing crash.
  • Inventory data shows there just aren’t enough homes available to have a repeat of what happened back in 2008.
Uncategorized July 16, 2024

Why Working with a Real Estate Professional Is Crucial Right Now

Navigating the housing market can be tricky, especially these days. That’s why having an experienced guide when buying or selling a home is so important. The market isn’t exactly straightforward right now, and working with a real estate expert can offer insights and advice that make all the difference.

While today’s market conditions might seem confusing or overwhelming, you don’t have to handle them alone. With a trusted expert leading you through every step, you can navigate the process with the clarity and confidence you deserve.

Here are just a few of the ways a real estate expert is invaluable:

Contracts – Agents help with the disclosures and contracts necessary in today’s heavily regulated environment.

Experience – In today’s market, experience is crucial. Real estate professionals know the entire sales process, including how it’s changing right now.

Negotiations – Your real estate advisor acts as a buffer in negotiations with all parties, and advocates for your best interests throughout the entire transaction.

Industry Expertise– Knowledge is power in today’s market, and your advisor will simply and effectively explain processes, market conditions, and key terms, translating what they mean for you along the way along the way­.

Pricing – A real estate professional understands current real estate values when setting the price of your home or helping you make an offer to purchase one. Pricing matters more than ever right now, so having expert advice will help ensure you’re set up for success.

A real estate agent is a crucial guide through this challenging market, but not all agents are created equal. A true expert can carefully walk you through the whole real estate process, look out for your unique needs, and advise you on the best ways to achieve success.

Finding an expert real estate advisor – not just any agent – should be your top priority if you want to buy or sell a home. As Bankrate says:

“Real estate is very localized, and you want someone who’s extremely knowledgeable about the market in your specific area. You should also look for someone with a successful track record of negotiating and closing deals, preferably for homes similar to the kind you want to buy.”

What’s the Key To Choosing the Right Expert?

Like any relationship, it starts with trust. You’ll want to know you can depend on that person to always put you and your best interests first. That means hiring a true professional. As Business Insider explains:

“As long as you’ve properly vetted the agents you’re considering and ensured they have the necessary expertise, it’s ok to go with your gut when making your final decision on which real estate agent you want to work with. You’re going to be working closely with this person, so it’s important to choose an agent you’re comfortable with.”

Bottom Line

It’s critical to have an expert on your side who’s well-versed in navigating today’s housing market dynamics. If you’re planning to buy or sell a home this year, let’s connect so you have a real estate professional to give you the best advice and guide you along the way.

Uncategorized July 14, 2024

The Difference Between an Inspection and an Appraisal

The Difference Between an Inspection and an Appraisal

When you decide to buy your first home, you may come across a number of terms and conditions you’re not familiar with. While you may have a general idea of what an inspection is, maybe you’re not sure why you need one or how it’s different from an appraisal. To keep it simple, here’s an explainer of each one and what they mean for you as a homebuyer.

Home Inspection

Once you’re under contract on a home you’d like to buy, getting an inspection is a key part of the process. An inspection gives you a clear idea of the safety and overall condition of the home – which is important for such a big transaction. As a recent Realtor.com article explains:

A home inspection is something that protects your financial interest in what will likely be the largest purchase you make in your life—one in which you need as much information as possible.”

If anything is questionable in the inspection process – like the age of the roof, the state of the HVAC system, or just about anything else – you have the option to discuss and negotiate any potential issues or repairs with the seller before the transaction is final. And don’t worry – you don’t have to go through that process alone. Your real estate agent will be your advocate and negotiate with the seller for you.

Home Appraisal

While the inspection tells you about the current state of the house, an appraisal gives you its value. Bankrate explains:

“When buying or selling a home, an appraisal verifies that the sale price of the home is in line with fair market value. This ensures the homebuyer doesn’t pay more than the home is worth, and the mortgage lender doesn’t lend more than it is worth.”

Regardless of what you’re willing to pay for a house, if you’ll be using a mortgage to fund your purchase, the appraisal protects you from overpaying and the bank from lending you more than the home is worth.

And if there’s ever any confusion or discrepancy between the appraisal and the agreed-upon price in your contract, your trusted real estate professional will help you navigate any additional negotiations to try to close the gap.

Bottom Line

The inspection and the appraisal are different but equally important steps when buying a home – and you don’t need to manage them by yourself. Let’s connect today so you have expert guidance from start to finish.

My Monthly Market Summary July 14, 2024

Market Summary for the Beginning of July

Hello, It’s that time again,

Market Summary for the Beginning of July

Here are the basics – the ARMLS numbers for July 1, 2024 compared with July 1, 2023 for all areas & types:

 

  • Active Listings: 18,121 versus 11,545 last year – up 57% – and up 0.4% from 18,044 last month
  • Under Contract Listings: 7,402 versus 7,858 last year – down 5.8% – and down 11% from 8,324 last month
  • Monthly Sales: 6,318 versus 7,456 last year – down 15% – and down 17% from 7,595 last month
  • Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $295.39 versus $287.67 last year – up 2.7% – but down 0.8% from $297.79 last month
  • Monthly Median Sales Price: $450,000 versus $443,000 last year – up 1.69% – and unchanged from $450,000 last month

 

The first half of 2024 has been a very subdued periods for Greater Phoenix’s residential real estate. The market is not in trouble, but the closing volumes have been far below normal and buyer enthusiasm is unusually weak and getting worse. Supply is significantly higher than last year, but remains below normal and shows a few signs of starting to decline at last. The weak demand is currently well matched and we are in a balanced market overall, though significant variation can be found among sub-markets based on location and price range. Compared with buyer’s desires there is too much supply on the outer fringes and not enough in the center of the valley.

 

On the bright side, distress remains extremely low with pending foreclosures and completed foreclosures few in number. We read that the average credit rating of successful home buyers taking out mortgages are higher than they have ever been, so there is almost none of the lending risk that was out of control in the lead-up to the great housing crash of 2007.

 

The Cromford® Market Index stands at 102.5, close to the balanced reading of 100, and has dropped slowly over the past month. It shows little sign of crashing below 90 at this stage, so alarm bells are not ringing. However, sellers are working with fewer buyers than normal and have more competition from other sellers, so compared with most of the past decade, they are having a tougher time. The average asking price $/SF has fallen a long way over the past 2 months – down 5.6% from $376.65 to $355.68. This is partly because price cuts have been numerous and partly because a lot of high-end listings have been cancelled or expired for the quiet summer period. It is normal for asking prices to fall at this stage in the year, but seasonal patterns are being emphasized by the weakness in demand.

 

For investors who remain active during the summer months, we see increased gross margins possible from fix and flips, though more effort will probably be required on the selling side then in recent years.

 

We are firmly into the quiet season and closed sales for June 2024 were already down 15% compared to June 2023. We anticipate low volumes to continue during July and we have 2 to 3 months of seasonal price weakness to endure before the market is likely to pick up steam again in October. This could be jump-started early by a drop in interest rates, but we are not holding our breath.

 

There is no need for panic, but patience is definitely being tested. Cromford Report

 

 

Go to my website for up-to-date information and a special feature called “Neighborhood News” “the best way to stay connected to what’s happening in the real estate market in your area”.  See homes that are for sale and recently sold, find out if home sales in your neighborhood are trending up or down, see what homes around you are currently selling for.  Also, you can search real time listings in any area of the market under (Find Your Dream Home.)  Check it out and stay updated with my daily blog and monthly market report that I send out monthly.   Go Here… My Website–Find Your Dream Home

If you’re considering selling or buying, give me a call to discuss your situation and current market conditions.

 

 

The best compliment is a referral to your family and friends!  Thank you so much!

 

 

All the best,

 

Shawn Keane
shawn.keane@azmoves.com

602.989.3209 Direct

480.291.1600 Office

Uncategorized July 14, 2024

What To Do When Your House Didn’t Sell

What To Do When Your House Didn’t Sell

If your listing expired and your house didn’t sell, it’s totally natural to feel a mix of frustration and disappointment. And as you’re working through that, you’re probably also wondering what went wrong and what you should do next.

If you still need to move and want to get it back on the market, here are some things to consider as you look back.

Was It Priced for Today’s Market?

Setting the right price from the start is key. While it might be tempting to try shooting high with your price, that can slow down the selling process big time. If your house was priced higher than others similar to it, it may have turned away buyers. And that’s likely why it sat on the market. As Rocket Mortgage explains:

“Buyer interest in your home is highest when it first comes on the market. That’s why it’s so important to start with the right price on day one. . . If you overprice your house, buyers may just raise an eyebrow and move on to the next listing without even coming for a showing. . . It can be easy to think your home is worth more but try not to let sentimental value color your judgment. Your home’s true value is whatever a buyer is willing to pay for it.”

Was It Easy for Buyers To Tour?

One of the biggest mistakes you can make when selling your house is overly restricting the days and times when potential buyers can tour it. Even though it might feel stressful to drop everything and leave when buyers want to see your house, being flexible with your schedule is important. After all, minimal access means minimal exposure to buyers. ShowingTime advises:

“. . . do your best to be as flexible as possible when granting access to your house for showings.”

Was It Set Up To Make the Best Impression on Buyers?

If buyers weren’t interested in your house, it’s worth taking another look at your home through their eyes. Are there outstanding repairs that may be distracting them? Even if it’s a small thing, some buyers may see it as a sign the maintenance on the home is falling behind.

Just remember, you don’t always need to make big upgrades. Selective small repairs or touch-ups go a long way. Things like tidying up your landscaping, a fresh coat of paint inside, or removing personal items and clutter can work wonders in sprucing up the house for potential buyers. You could also consider staging the home.

Were You Willing To Negotiate?

If there were offers coming in, but you weren’t ready to negotiate, that may be another reason why it didn’t sell. While you want to get top dollar for your house, you also need to be realistic about what your house can net in today’s market. The market is still tipped in a seller’s favor, but the supply of homes for sale is growing and buyers are feeling the sting of higher mortgage rates. So being willing to play ball can make closing a deal a whole lot easier. A skilled agent can help. As Ramsey Solutions explains:

“If you don’t have the money or time to fix home issues, consider offering some other form of incentive to buyers. . . An experienced real estate agent can help you arrange a deal where you and your buyer both come out on top.” 

Did You Listen To Your Agent?

If you want an expert’s advice on why it didn’t sell, rely on a trusted real estate agent. Whether that’s the agent you used previously or a new one once the listing has officially expired, a great agent will sit down and take the time to talk it over with you. They’ll want to hear your honest opinion on what worked and what didn’t, and where you want to go from here.

Then, they’ll offer their perspective. This includes tailored advice and effective strategies for re-listing your house to get it sold. As Better Homes & Gardens says, an agent should be your go-to resource in this situation:

“If you’re frustrated with the timeline of your sale, chat with your real estate agent. Agents want what is best for you and the sale of your home, and having open communication about any frustrations will be key.”

Bottom Line

It’s natural to feel disappointed when your listing has expired and your house didn’t sell. Connect with a reliable real estate agent to determine what happened, and what changes you should make to get your house back on the market.

Uncategorized June 19, 2024

Do Elections Impact the Housing Market? 6/24

Do Elections Impact the Housing Market?

The 2024 Presidential election is just months away. As someone who’s thinking about potentially buying or selling a home, you’re probably curious about what effect, if any, elections have on the housing market.

It’s a great question because buying or selling a home is a major decision, and it’s natural to wonder how such a major event might impact your plans.

Historically, Presidential elections have only had a small, temporary impact on the housing market. Here’s the latest on exactly what’s happened to home sales, prices, and mortgage rates throughout those time periods.

Home Sales

During the month of November, in years when the Presidential election takes place, there’s typically a slight slowdown in home sales. As Ali Wolf, Chief Economist at Zondaexplains:

“Usually, home sales are unchanged compared to a non-election year with the exception being November. In an election year, November is slower than normal.

This is mostly because some people feel uncertain and hesitant about making big decisions during such a pivotal time. However, it’s important to know this slowdown is temporary. Historically, home sales bounce back in December and continue to rise the following year.

In fact, data from the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows after nine of the last 11 Presidential elections, home sales went up the next year (see graph below): No Caption Received

The graph shows annual home sales going back to 1978. Each year with a Presidential election is noted in blue. The year immediately after each election is green if existing home sales rose that year. The two orange bars represent the only years when home sales decreased after an election.

Home Prices

What about home prices? Do they drop during election years? Not typically. As residential appraiser and housing analyst Ryan Lundquist puts it:

“An election year doesn’t alter the price trend that is already happening in the market.”

Home prices are pretty resilient. They generally rise year-over-year, regardless of elections. The latest data from NAR shows after seven of the last eight Presidential elections, home prices increased the following year (see graph below): No Caption Received

Just like the previous graph, this shows election years in blue. The only year when prices declined after an election is in orange. That was during the housing market crash, which was far from a typical year. Today’s market is different than it was back then.

All the green bars represent when prices rose the following year. So, if you’re worried about your home losing value because of an election, you can rest easy knowing prices rise after most Presidential elections.

Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates are important because they affect how much your monthly payment will be when you buy a home. Looking at the last 11 Presidential election years, data from Freddie Mac shows mortgage rates decreased from July to November in eight of them (see chart below): No Caption Received

Most forecasts expect mortgage rates to ease slightly throughout the remainder of the year. If they’re right, this year will follow the trend of declining rates leading up to most previous elections. And if you’re looking to buy a home in the coming months, this could be good news, as lower rates could mean a lower monthly payment.

What This Means for You

So, what’s the big takeaway? While Presidential elections do have some impact on the housing market, the effects are usually small and temporary. As Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, says:

“Historically, the housing market doesn’t tend to look very different in presidential election years compared to other years.”

For most buyers and sellers, elections don’t have a major impact on their plans.

Bottom Line

While it’s natural to feel a bit uncertain during an election year, history shows the housing market remains strong and resilient. For help navigating the market, election year or not, let’s connect.