Market Summary for the Beginning of August 2025

by Shawn Keane

Hello to all my fans…..

Here are the basics – the ARMLS numbers for September 1, 2025 compared with September 1, 2024 for all areas & types:

Active Listings: 23,238 versus 18,430 last year – up 28% – but down 2.2% from 24,091 last month
Under Contract Listings (including Pending): 7,260 versus 6,658 last year – up 9.0% – but down 1.5% from 7,369 last month
Monthly Sales: 5,900 versus 5,727 last year – up 3.0% – but down 4.7% from 6,193 last month
Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $281.04 versus $288.98 last year – down 2.7% – and down 1.3% from $284.84 last month
Monthly Median Sales Price: $442,540 versus $440,000 last year – up 0.6% – and up 0.1% from $451,995 last month

Sellers have had a rough year so far, but the last two months have seen their troubles ease a little. Supply dropped again during August, although much less than in July. Active listings without a contract fell 2.2% compared with 6.2% last month. We have a feeling that we are close to the end of this trend as supply normally starts to grow between Labor Day and Thanksgiving. The sellers that remain in the game must thank those that gave up – cancelled listings were numerous over the last 2 months – 4,737 compared with 3,516 in the same period last year.

Unlike last month, there is also some good news for sellers in the demand numbers. It seems that buyers prefer 30-year fixed interest rates around 6.5% to those between 6.75% and 7.0%. Not exactly surprising, but we are able to demonstrate some evidence for this. Listings under contract ended the month up 9% compared to the same time last year. Last month they were up only 1%.

Monthly sales were improved too, up 3% compared with last year (better than the 0.8% growth we saw last month). This understates the improvement because we had only 21 working days in August 2025 and 22 in August 2024. A 3% advantage to August 2025 therefore translates to a 8% advantage in closed sales per day.

Buyers get good news in the pricing numbers. Closed listings sold for 2.7% less per square foot last month compared to August 2024. With inflation running at 2.7%, affordability in $/SF terms has improved well over 5% compared to 12 months ago. Maybe this is also a reason for the demand improving during August. For those optimistic sellers who would prefer to believe that pricing stayed flat, we recommend the monthly median sale price.

You can always pick and choose which statistics you want to believe, and human nature means that most people will believe what they want to anyway. We think pricing continues to face downward pressure and is likely to do so until the Cromford® Market Index moves over 90 again. Right now it is looking good for a move above 80 at least. Source Cromford Report

“Downward pricing pressure is likely to persist through the end of the year unless interest rates experience a significant decline. However, rates have recently reached a five-month low, which has contributed to stronger foot traffic and an uptick in contracts.”

Considering Buying or Selling? Let’s Connect.

With over 21 years of experience in the real estate market, I’m here to help you navigate your next move with confidence. Whether you’re looking to buy, sell, or simply explore your options, I’ll provide you with the insights you need to make informed decisions.

Even if you’re not planning to sell for several months, it’s never too early to start preparing. I offer personalized consultations where we can walk through your property together to identify improvements that can maximize your home’s value.

Curious About Your Home’s Value?
Click the Home Valuation link in my signature below for a comprehensive assessment.

Want to know more about your equity? I can also provide an Equity Analysis Report, which might reveal more value in your home than you realize.

Let’s chat soon to start planning your next move.

Buying • Selling • August 6, 2025

Selling and Buying at the Same Time? Here’s What You Need To Know

by Shawn Keane

If you’re a homeowner planning to move, you’re probably wondering what the process is going to look like and what you should tackle first:

Is it better to start by finding your next home?
Or should you sell your current house before you go out looking?

Ultimately, what’s right for you depends on a lot of factors. And that’s where an agent’s experience can really help make your next step clear.

They know your local market, the latest trends, and what’s working for other homeowners right now. And they’ll be able to make a recommendation based on their expertise and your needs.

But here’s a little bit of a sneak peek. In many cases today, getting your current home on the market first can put you in a better spot. Here’s why that order tends to work best (and how an agent can help).

The Advantages of Selling First

1. You’ll Unlock Your Home Equity

Selling your current home before you try to buy your next one allows you to access the equity you’ve built up – and based on home price appreciation over the past few years, that’s no small number. Data from Cotality (formerly CoreLogic) shows the average homeowner is sitting on $302K in equity today.

And once you sell, you can use that equity to pay for the down payment on your next house (and maybe even more). You could even have enough to buy your next house in cash. That’s a big deal, and it could make your next move a whole lot easier on your wallet.

2. You Won’t Be Juggling Two Mortgages

Trying to buy before you sell means you could wind up holding two mortgages, even if just for a few months. That can get expensive, fast – especially if there are unexpected repairs or delays. Selling first removes that stress and helps you move forward without the financial strain. As Ramsey Solutions says:

“It’s best to sell your old home before buying a new one to avoid unnecessary risks and possible headaches.”

3. You’ll Be in a Stronger Position When You Make an Offer

Sellers love a clean, simple offer. If you’ve already sold your house, you don’t need to make your offer contingent on that sale – and that can help you stand out. Your agent can position your offer to be as strong as possible, so you have the best shot at getting the home you want.

This can be a big advantage in competitive markets where sellers prefer buyers with fewer strings attached.

One Thing To Keep in Mind

But, like with anything in life, there are tradeoffs. As you weigh your options, consider this potential drawback, too:

1. You May Need a Place To Stay (Temporarily)

Once your house sells, you may need a short-term rental or to stay with family until you can move into your next home. Your agent can help you negotiate things like a post-closing occupancy (renting the home from the buyer for a set period) or flexible closing dates to help smooth out that transition as much as possible.

Here’s a simple visual that can help you think through your options (see below):

But the best way to determine what’s best for you and your specific situation? Talk to a trusted local agent.

Bottom Line

In many cases, selling first doesn’t just give you clarity, it gives you options. It helps you buy with more confidence, more financial power, and less pressure.

If you’re ready to make a move but you’re not sure where to begin, let’s talk. We can walk through your potential equity, your timing, and your local market conditions so you can decide what’s right for you.

Selling • August 6, 2025

The 3 Things You Risk by Pricing Too High 8.2025

by Shawn Keane

The 3 Things You Risk by Pricing Too High

When selling your house, the price you choose isn’t just a number, it’s a strategy. And in today’s market, that strategy needs to be sharp.

The number of homes for sale is climbing. And that means buyers have more choices and can be more selective. If your price doesn’t line up with what else is out there, they’ll scroll right past it and go on to the next one.

Pricing right from the start is your best move – and a great agent can help make sure you do.

Overpricing Comes at a Cost

And more sellers are finding that out the hard way. They list their house based on how things were a year ago – or based on a neighbor’s sale that happened under completely different circumstances. Then, when their house doesn’t sell, they’re left with three tough choices:

Drop the price: Cutting the price might help get more eyes on the house again, but it can also trigger red flags. Buyers may wonder what’s wrong with it. And that’s going to impact any offers you get after the price cut.
Take it off the market: Some sellers give up on the idea of selling right now. The worst part about this is it means putting their future plans on the back burner. That dream of more space, downsizing, or relocating? On pause.
Rent it out: Others go the landlord route, but managing tenants and navigating leases isn’t always the simple fallback it seems. Renting can work, but it’s often a lot more hassle than people expect.

None of those options were part of the original plan. And honestly, none of them are where you should end up if you wanted to sell. Here’s a look at how a local agent’s expertise can help you avoid these headaches. Let’s use price cuts as an example.

Where You Live Makes a Difference

While the number of price cuts is up nationally, data shows some parts of the country are seeing far more of them than others. It all comes down to how much inventory has grown in that area (see map below):

As Realtor.com explains:

“Regionally, price reductions in June were significantly more common in the South and West (23% of listings) than they were in the Northeast (13% of listings), reflecting the inventory divergence across these regions.”

That means pricing isn’t one-size-fits-all. What’s happening nationally might not reflect what’s happening in your zip code, and that’s why you shouldn’t try to determine your list price on your own.

How a Great Agent Helps You Nail the Price

A skilled agent doesn’t just toss out a number. As Zillow says:

“Well-priced homes are more likely to sell quickly, but pricing your home to sell quickly and for maximum dollar requires strategy and knowledge of your local market. You need to have a clear-eyed view of your home in relation to the competition, and knowledge about whether you’re in a buyers or sellers market. It also helps to know what buyers in your area can afford.”

And that’s all knowledge your agent will have. They study your local market, compare recent sales, and factor in your goals and buyer behavior. Based on what’s happening where you live, sometimes the best play will be pricing right at current market value. Other times pricing a little lower actually will spark more offers and ultimately get you a better final sale price.

So don’t skimp on the strategy or on your agent. With their local market know-how, you’ll be able to sell quickly, even in a shifting market.

Bottom Line

Overpricing can lead to tough choices you never want to face. But with the right price, and the right guidance, you can skip the stress and sell with confidence. Let’s connect so you have a pricing strategy that works for today’s market and gets you where you want to go.

My Monthly Market Summary • August 6, 2025

Market Summary for the Beginning of August 2025

by Shawn Keane

Here are the basics – the ARMLS numbers for August 1, 2025 compared with August 1, 2024 for all areas & types:

Active Listings: 24,091 versus 17,484 last year – up 38% – but down 6.2% from 25,683 last month
Under Contract Listings (including Pending) 7,369 versus 7,287 last year – up 1.1% – but down 4.3% from 7,702 last month
Monthly Sales: 6,156 versus 6,6207 last year – down 0.8% – and down 7.3% from 6,638 last month
Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $284.83 versus $286.62 last year – down 0.6% – and down 2.9% from $293.23 last month
Monthly Median Sales Price: $441,995 versus $440,000 last year – up 0.5% – but down 1.8% from $450,000 last month

Sellers can take comfort from the decline in supply, down about 6% from a month ago, though still up 38% from this time last year. Much of the decline was due to cancellations and expiries, up 7% and 15% compared with the previous month. Many sellers are taking a time-out but those that remain have the advantage of less competition.

Unfortunately there is little comfort in the demand numbers. Closed sales were slightly down on July 2024 and dropped 7.3% from June. Under contract counts managed to beat August 1, 2024 by 1.1% but are down 4.3% from a month ago.

Pricing is now in a firm downward trend now that the top end of the market is quiet for the summer. The average $/SF for July dropped almost 3% compared with June and the monthly median fell another 1.8%.

August looks likely to give us more of the same. We are expecting supply to decline further as more sellers withdraw, though this pattern is likely to end during September. We usually get a second wind for new listings as we move into Autumn, especially for the luxury and 55+ sectors.

Demand is stuck in first gear but those buyers who are active are being treated with the utmost respect. This is in stark contrast to 2021-2022 when most attractive listings received multiple offers within days and buyers had to work hard to even get noticed.

Pricing in nominal terms remains at around the same level as three years ago, at least outside the luxury sector. However inflation has reduced the buying power of the dollar, which means that homes are now significantly more affordable than they were in August 2022. Source Cromford Report

The 3 Things You Risk by Pricing Too High

When selling your house, the price you choose isn’t just a number, it’s a strategy.
Continue Reading

Will Mortgage Rates Come Down?

A common thought among today’s buyers is: I’m just going to wait for rates to come down. But is that a smart strategy?

“If you’re looking for a substantial interest rate drop in 2025, you’ll likely be left waiting. The latest news from the Federal Reserve and other key economic data point toward steady mortgage rates on par with what we see today.”

In other words, don’t try to time the market or wait for a drop that may not be coming.

Most experts say rates will remain in the 6s, and current projections have them settling in the mid-6% range by the end of this year.

Rates today, on average, are at 6.75%. I project that rates can get as low as 6% next year. If you try to time the market for the best rate, you may pay a much higher price for your next home. There is pent-up demand on the sidelines, and once rates come down, there will be added competition and possible multiple offers for the home you’re interested in, which could lead to higher prices.

Thinking of buying or selling? Let’s talk. With over 21 years of experience, I’ll help you navigate the market and make informed decisions.

Are you interested in what your home is worth? Click the Home Valuation link below in my signature line. How about an equity analysis report? You may have more equity than you’re aware of.

Buying • Mortgage Rates • July 8, 2025

What You Should Know About Getting a Mortgage Today 2025

by Shawn Keane

If you’ve been putting off buying a home because you thought getting approved would be too hard, know this: qualifying for a mortgage is starting to get a bit more achievable, but lending standards are still strong.

Buying • Markets • July 8, 2025

Think No One’s Buying Homes Right Now? Think Again. 2025 July

by Shawn Keane

If you’ve seen headlines saying home sales are down compared to last year, you might be thinking – is it even a good time to sell?

My Monthly Market Summary • July 8, 2025

July Phoenix Housing Market Update 2025

by Shawn Keane

Here are the basics – the ARMLS numbers for July 1, 2025 compared with July 1, 2024 for all areas & types:

Active Listings: 25,683 versus 18,121 last year – up 42% – but down 3.4% from 26,580 last month
Under Contract Listings: 7,702 versus 7,402 last year – up 4.1% – but down 2.9% from 7,936 last month
Monthly Sales: 6,629 versus 6,319 last year – up 4.9% – but down 6.8% from 7,114 last month
Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $293.08 versus $295.31 last year – down 0.8% – and down 2.4% from $300.16 last month
Monthly Median Sales Price: $450,000 the same as last year – but down 1.1% from $455,000 last month

Though the changes were small, there was good news for sellers on both supply and demand compared to last month. We saw a significant number of cancellations and expirations at the end of the second quarter, meaning we have less supply as we start the third quarter. We enjoyed one extra working day in June 2025 compared to June 2024, so sales going up 4.9% is about par for the course, rather than a win. However listings under contract are up compared to a year ago as buyers react to a slight reduction in mortgage rates. This is genuine good news. They may also be reacting to falling asking prices as buyers inject more realism into their listings. Closed prices are down sharply from May when measured by average $/SF and are now slightly lower than last year. The median sales price is the same as last year but down 1.1% from last month.

The good news on supply and demand is welcome and is enough to stop the Cromford® Market Index from dropping further. If current trends continue, then it could well start to rise again. However, the increased demand is fragile and might disappear if mortgage rates head back up towards 7% again. Also the reduction in supply is largely due to sellers giving up, which is not as positive a sign as increased closing rates. Many of these expired and cancelled listings are likely to come back again in the fourth quarter, although we know of several that have been converted to rental listings instead.

The high-end of the market remains strong, but it tends to be much less active during the summer, and the entry-level market is still trending weaker. For this reason, we would expect price measurements to be flat to lower during the next 3 months. This means homes are getting cheaper relative to everything else. At some point, especially if interest rates also make a move lower, then demand could see a nice recovery. Home ownership is still very desirable. Source Cromford Report

As 2025 unfolds, it’s clear the Phoenix housing market isn’t crashing — it’s recalibrating. Prices are stabilizing, inventory is gradually improving, and well-prepared buyers are staying active.

Phoenix continues to attract with job growth, quality of life, and steady in-migration. Still, interest rates, affordability, policy uncertainty, and equity gaps remain hurdles.

The fundamentals are strong — it’s about patience and perseverance.”

Buyers are adjusting to higher interest rates with more confidence than expected. If you can afford to buy, now is probably a good time.

Thinking of buying or selling? Let’s talk. With over 21 years of experience, I’ll help you navigate the market and make informed decisions.

Are you interested in what your home is worth? Click the Home Valuation link below in my signature line. How about an equity analysis report? You may have more equity than you’re aware of.

Markets • My Monthly Market Summary • May 5, 2025

Phoenix Housing Market Report for May 1, 2025

by Shawn Keane

Our markets have taken a downturn, and I expect downward pressure to persist at least through the 4th quarter. This, however, presents a great opportunity for homebuyers who have been waiting for more favorable terms and better pricing. As the economy slows, interest rates should ease, providing further benefits for homebuyers. Now is the time to act or prepare—waiting for the perfect moment to time the market could mean missing out. Once the market begins to turn around, the window of opportunity will close quickly.

To remain competitive, sellers must be prepared to offer concessions and stay flexible on price, especially if the property isn’t show-ready or in a prime location. The days of listing high and expecting multiple offers are behind us, at least for now.

“Since the housing market peaked in June of 2022, many of you may not be fully aware of where the key statistics stand today.”

These are the housing stats for May of 2022, which was the top in the market:

Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft. May 2022: $303.55
Monthly Median Sales Price- May 2022: $475,000

And these are housing stats for April of 2025: Today

Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft. May 2025: $299.30
Monthly Median Sales Price May 2025: $445,000

Price Per Sq Ft is down -1.4% in 3 years.
Median Sales Price is down -6.3% in 3 years.

Because the luxury market has remained strong, with significantly higher price points, price-per-square-foot figures can be misleading. The monthly median sales price offers a more accurate and balanced view of the overall housing market.

“Feel free to reach out anytime—it’s more important than ever to work with an experienced agent who can help you confidently navigate today’s challenging market.” Shawn

Here is the……
Market Summary for the Beginning of May

Here are the basics – the ARMLS numbers for May 1, 2025 compared with May 1, 2024 for all areas & types:

Active Listings: 26,190 versus 17,129 last year – up 53% – and up 4.8% from 24,990 last month.

Under Contract Listings: 9,047 versus 9,336 last year – down 3.1% – and down 0.7% from 9,113 last month.

Monthly Sales: 7,303 versus 7,045 last year – up 3.7% – and up 4.89% from 6,967 last month.

Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $299.30 versus $306.53 last year – down 2.4% – and down 3.7% from $310.76 last month.

Monthly Median Sales Price: $445,000 versus $450,000 last year – down 1.1% – and down 3.2% from $459,500 last month.

There were 22 working days in both April 2025 and April 2024, so we do not need to make any calendar-based adjustments.

Transaction volumes improved, with closings up 3.7% compared with April 2024. However dollar volume declined, because closed pricing dropped hard between March and April. There are three factors behind this….

Higher volumes at the lower end of the market.
The top end of the market has slowed down.
A general downward trend in prices due to buyers taking increased control of the market.

Supply continued to climb throughout April but the growth rate is slowing down as we enter May. Supply is now a little higher than normal while demand is far below normal. This is not a healthy combination and market theory postulates that prices will fall while the condition persists.

Although sales volume improved, the number of listings under contract has declined slightly from the beginning of April. In theory, demand should increase as prices decline, but that depends on buyers having confidence that home prices won’t get more attractive if they wait a little bit longer.

Temperatures will soon be entering their peak period in Central Arizona and house hunting in the open air will become less comfortable. In almost every year that means the market slows down and prices weaken. The current closing price dip of over 3% during a single month is unlikely to be reversed in the next 4 or 5 months. It is more likely that the downtrend continues, at least until we enter the fourth quarter.

The most positive trend right now is the increase in transaction volumes, and we hope this will continue for some time. Source Cromford Report

Sellers are currently negotiating and, on average, are offering concessions. It’s essential to market your home effectively by ensuring it is move-in ready and presents well. This is not the time to overprice your home, as buyers have many more options available to them.

I can assist you in selling your home, using our proven marketing strategy and resources to prepare your home for the market and ensure it sells for top dollar.

Call me to discuss your situation if you’re considering selling or buying.

Markets • My Monthly Market Summary • May 5, 2025

Phoenix Housing Market Update May 1, 2025

by Shawn Keane

“Since the housing market peaked in June of 2022, many of you may not be fully aware of where the key statistics stand today.”

These are the housing stats for May of 2022, which was the top in the market:

Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft- May 2022: $303.55
Monthly Median Sales Price- May 2022: $475,000

And these are housing stats for April of 2025: Today

Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $299.30
Monthly Median Sales Price: $445,000

Price Per Sq Ft is down -1.4% in 3 years.

Median Sales Price is down -6.3% in 3 years.

“Feel free to reach out anytime—it’s more important than ever to work with an experienced agent who can help you confidently navigate today’s challenging market.” Shawn

Here is the……..

Market Summary for the Beginning of May

Here are the basics – the ARMLS numbers for May 1, 2025 compared with May 1, 2024 for all areas & types:

Active Listings: 26,190 versus 17,129 last year – up 53% – and up 4.8% from 24,990 last month
Under Contract Listings: 9,047 versus 9,336 last year – down 3.1% – and down 0.7% from 9,113 last month
Monthly Sales: 7,303 versus 7,045 last year – up 3.7% – and up 4.89% from 6,967 last month
Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $299.30 versus $306.53 last year – down 2.4% – and down 3.7% from $310.76 last month
Monthly Median Sales Price: $445,000 versus $450,000 last year – down 1.1% – and down 3.2% from $459,500 last month

There were 22 working days in both April 2025 and April 2024, so we do not need to make any calendar-based adjustments.

Higher volumes at the lower end of the market
The top end of the market has slowed down
A general downward trend in prices due to buyers taking increased control of the market.

The most positive trend right now is the increase in transaction volumes, and we hope this will continue for some time. Source Cromford Report

I can assist you in selling your home, using our proven marketing strategy and resources to prepare your home for the market and ensure it sells for top dollar.

Call me to discuss your situation if you’re considering selling or buying.

SHAWN KEANE

REALTOR, ARIZONA

(602) 989-3209 Cell

shawn.keane@azmoves.com

Visit My Website | Home Valuation | Read My Reviews

My Monthly Market Summary • April 15, 2025

Market Summary for the Beginning of April 2025

by Shawn Keane

Here are the basics – the ARMLS numbers for April 1, 2025 compared with April 1, 2024 for all areas & types:

Active Listings: 24,990 versus 17,025 last year – up 47% – and up 4.4% from 23,934 last month
Pending Listings: 5,278 versus 5,185 last year – up 1.8% – and up 5% from 5,028 last month
Under Contract Listings: 9,113 versus 8,601 last year – up 6.0% – and up 7.6% from 8,471 last month
Monthly Sales: 6,939 versus 6,765 last year – up 2.6% – but up 19% from 5,816 last month
Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $311.19 versus $294.09 last year – up 5.8% – but down 0.2% from $311.80 last month
Monthly Median Sales Price: $459,500 versus $445,000 last year – up 3.3% – and up 0.1% from $459,000 last month

There were 21 working days in both March 2025 and March 2024, so we do not need to make any calendar-based adjustments.

There is good news and bad news for both sellers and buyers.

The active listing counts continue to rise, which is very unusual between March and April, and therefore bad news for sellers, but the rate of increase has at least slowed down. Interest rates have eased to around 6.63% for the 30 year fixed, and demand shows clear signs of improving during March. Pending listings are higher than last year and listings under contract are up over 6%. The sales count is also stronger (up 2.6% from March 2024). This is encouraging for sellers. The problem remains that even with this higher transaction and contract level, supply is still rising. There are simply more sellers than we expected, with year-to-date new listings almost 20% higher than this time last year.

Closed pricing is still looking surprisingly strong but once again this is heavily skewed by high-end deals that were agreed before pandemonium hit the stock market. The luxury market is highly dependent on how wealthy people feel about their investments, and they have gone from ebullient in early January to despondent in early April. This change is not reflected in closings, but it appears to be making itself felt in active list pricing and under contract counts for the top end of the market.

With the Cromford® Market Index now below 80, the downward pressure on prices is building just as inflation starts to tick up again. The cost of building a home is rising quickly because so many of the physical components are sourced from abroad, but new home selling prices will have to come down when supply exceeds demand to the extent we are now seeing. Despite new home closings in Greater Phoenix reaching the highest level for January and February since 2006, home builders are starting to cut their base prices – KB Home being the first major builder to report doing so. Other builders may be hoping that increasing concessions will work, but just one look at the stock charts for homebuilders is enough to paint the picture clearly. Lennar is currently down 32% over the past 12 months and DR Horton is down 22%. Even Toll Brothers, operating at a much higher median price point, is down 22% from a year ago.

Although there are more buyers about at the moment, they have a lot of choice and growing bargaining power, especially in the outlying and less expensive areas. With patience and care, they should be able to secure a good deal if the seller is realistic about market conditions. If the seller is unrealistic, there is no harm in walking away.

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