Buying • Markets • Selling • February 19, 2026

February Mid Market update 2026

by Shawn Keane

Contracts in Escrow up 7% Over Last Year

The Market is Better, but It’s Not Easy for Sellers

For Buyers

The home buying season is entering its busiest time in Arizona, and so far contracts in escrow are 7% higher than this time last year and they’re expected to peak over the next 2-3 months. Currently, demand is considered 16% below normal for this time of year, but last August it was 24% below normal so conditions have improved since rates dropped to the low 6% last September.

The current level of inventory for sale is considered normal for this time of year, which is a full recovery after 14 years of documented chronic under-supply in Greater Phoenix. Total inventory in the Arizona Regional MLS is up 9% over last year and combined with lower demand places the Valley in a slight buyer’s market overall, with large central cities in modest seller’s markets and growing cities on the outskirts in prolonged buyer’s markets.

Not all cities are below normal in demand. In fact, Apache Junction is 23% above normal for demand and normal for supply, ranking the city as the 4th strongest seller’s market for now. Many growing cities in buyer’s markets have normal levels of demand, but high supply. These cities include Buckeye, Gold Canyon, Goodyear, San Tan Valley, and Surprise, where annual sales have increased quickly over the past year as a growing number of buyers have taken advantage of attractive seller and builder incentives. Developers have responded by scaling back the number of permits to avoid prolonging the oversupply situation and encourage a more balanced market.

Bottom line, buyer demand is improving as conventional mortgage rates have remained stable in the low-6% range for nearly 6 months now; both FHA and ARMs are in the mid-5% range. Non-luxury home prices below $800K are down an average of 4% from last year. Every 0.1% drop in the mortgage rate is 1% off the principal and interest payment, and every 1% drop in price is another 1%, each equates to an extra $10 savings per $1,000 in payment. Combining the rate declines and price declines since this time last year, mortgage payments are down an average of 14% for median-priced homes, so a $2,500 payment quoted last year would be $350 less this year for the same home. For those buyers who are in a position to purchase a home, there is little advantage to delaying a purchase 3-6 months for prices or rates to decline further as it may only save an extra $30 or less per month in payment.

For Sellers

It’s business as usual for sellers. Professional advice last year is the same advice this year, but the market has improved compared to last summer. While January is the top month for luxury and retirement community listings to enter the market, March is the top month for mainstream sellers. These new listings create a surge of inventory in preparation for the peak contract months from February through May. This wave typically results in existing sellers lowering their asking prices to compete. It’s a cycle that repeats every year.

It’s natural for sellers to introduce their listings with prices that test the boundaries of what the market can bear. When transitioning from a seller’s market to a buyer’s market, buyers will increasingly refuse to engage at these elevated prices, ghosting the sellers until they bring their asking price within a desirable range. After more than a year of this behavior, sellers have become more moderate in their expectations at the onset, resulting in a 4% decline in early price reductions compared to last year. Once the list price comes within 2-3% of where the buyers believe it should be, then sellers increase their probability of an offer.

Buyers have become quite finicky, however, and aligning your price with existing comparable properties may not be enough. Proper price positioning today should focus on being the biggest “bang for the buck” in the buyer’s eyes instead of getting an extra dollar for every extra amenity and upgrade one has put into the home. Condition is important, offering a clean property that has been well-maintained with newer systems and few expensive projects for a buyer, combined with a competitive price, will aid in landing an offer.

While it seems reasonable to simply discount a home due to condition, this approach often fails in a buyer’s market. The extra money, effort, and time to bring a property up to par is often more than a buyer is willing to shoulder when there are other properties that don’t require the hassle. Sometimes providing a quote and a contractor who can perform the work right away, or even prior to close of escrow, can go a long way in addressing these concerns. Also, be aware of any new home developments that may be competing within 1-2 miles of your listing and within your price range, even if they’re not comparable in size or location, your potential buyer will be using them as a benchmark for condition, value, and incentives.

Commentary written by Tina Tamboer, Senior Housing Analyst with The Cromford Report

Considering Buying or Selling? Let’s Connect.

With over 21 years of experience in the real estate market, I’m here to help you navigate your next move with confidence. Whether you’re looking to buy, sell, or simply explore your options, I’ll provide you with the insights you need to make informed decisions.

Even if you’re not planning to sell for several months, it’s never too early to start preparing. I offer personalized consultations where we can walk through your property together to identify improvements that can maximize your home’s value. Shawn Keane

Buying • February 10, 2026

Home Insurance Costs Are Rising: What Buyers Should Plan For 2026

by Shawn Keane

Home Insurance Costs Are Rising: What Buyers Should Plan For

Buying a home is one of the biggest purchases you’ll ever make. And homeowner’s insurance is what protects that investment. Think of it as your safety net. NerdWallet explains it:

Covers Repairs and Rebuilding Costs: If your home is damaged by fire, storms, or other covered events, it helps pay for repairs and possibly even a full rebuild, if that’s deemed necessary.
Protects Your Belongings: It can also cover personal items like furniture, electronics, jewelry, and clothing if they’re stolen or damaged.
Provides Liability Coverage: And, if someone gets injured on your property, your policy can help cover medical bills or legal expenses.

But that peace of mind does come with a cost, and lately those costs have been rising.

Why Home Insurance Premiums Are Going Up

There are a number of factors causing insurance premiums to rise today. But, in the simplest sense, here’s what’s driving prices up according to the Insurance Research Council (IRC).

Severe weather events and natural disasters are happening increasingly often, leading to more claims. At the same time, homebuilding materials and labor are more expensive. So, when it comes time to work on those claims, insurers have to manage higher costs to repair or rebuild the affected homes.

That combination adds up to higher premiums. You can see how it’s climbed recently in the graph below. Each bar marks the percentage increase in insurance costs for that calendar year.

The good news is, the annual pace of the increase may be starting to ease according to ResiClub and Cotality. By their count:

In 2023 and 2024, insurance costs went up 14% a year.
In 2025, they rose about 10%.
And in 2026 and 2027, it’s expected to go up about 8% each year.

That’s still an increase, but at least the pace is slowing down. And here’s another silver lining.

While insurance costs are rising, mortgage rates are falling. And that can help offset some of this expense. As Michael Gaines, Senior VP of Capital Markets, Cardinal Financial, explains:

“Rising taxes and insurance do create pressure, but they don’t erase the benefits of a lower rate . . . A small rate improvement, paired with the right loan program and smart planning, can still make homeownership possible . . . It’s less about one factor canceling another out, and more about helping buyers layer the right solutions together.”

Costs Are Going To Be Different Depending on Where You Buy

So how much do you need to budget for this? It depends on the price point and location of house, the coverage you need, and more. And just like with everything else in real estate, costs vary by area.

You can get a rough idea of your state’s typical premiums in the map below:

So, What Can You Do About It?

Generally speaking, your first insurance payment will be wrapped into your closing costs. But after that, it’ll become a recurring expense. That’s why knowing these premiums are rising is so important. It helps you factor that into your budget, so you go in with a full picture of what you can comfortably afford.

If you’re crunching the numbers and trying to find other ways to save, here are a few tips from Insurify and NerdWallet that can help you get the best insurance price possible:

Shop Around – Compare quotes from multiple companies.
Bundle Policies – Combine home and auto for discounts.
Ask About Discounts – Don’t miss out on savings you may qualify for.
Highlight Upgrades – Features like a new roof or storm windows can cut costs.
Improve Your Credit – A stronger credit score can mean better premiums.

Bottom Line

If you’re thinking about buying a home, don’t forget to plan ahead for your homeowner’s insurance.

While costs are rising, knowing what to expect and how to shop around can make a big difference as you’re budgeting for your purchase. Because this isn’t coverage you’ll want to skimp on. It’s your best protection for what’s likely your biggest investment.

Buying • Mortgage Rates • February 10, 2026

Top 3 Reasons To Buy a Home Before Spring 2026

by Shawn Keane

Top 3 Reasons To Buy a Home Before Spring

If you’re planning to buy a home this year, you may be focused on the spring market.

Markets • My Monthly Market Summary • February 10, 2026

Market Summary for the Beginning of February 2026

by Shawn Keane

Here are the basics – the ARMLS numbers for February 1, 2026 compared with February 1, 2025 for all areas & types:

Active Listings: 22,593 versus 22,432 last year – up 9.6% – and up 9.7% from 22,428 last month
Under Contract Listings (including Pending): 7,564 versus 7,403 last year – up 2.2% – and up 31% from 5,782 last month
Monthly Sales: 4,843 versus 4,736 last year – up 2.3% – but down 24% from 6,403 last month
Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $314.50 versus $313.54 last year – up 0.3% – and up 3.7% from $303.39 last month
Monthly Median Sales Price: $447,000 versus $453,500 last year – down 1.4% – and down 1.8% from $455,000 last month

We saw an unusually strong decline in supply during December, but this came back strongly in January as many sellers who had cancelled listings during the fourth quarter put them back on the market last month. Thus we see almost 10% more active listings than a month ago.

Demand is up a little from a year ago, but not as much as expected, given interest rates are a lot lower than this time last year. The typical 30-year fixed rate is currently around 6.2% while a year ago it was just over 7%. Pending listings are actually down year over year, but this is because more agents are using UCB status instead. The total number of listings under contract is up a modest 2.2% from Feb 1, 2025. This is better than a decline, obviously, but it hardly represents enthusiastic buying.

Monthly closings are also up 2.3% year over year but January’s 4,843 was a steep drop of 24% from December’s 6,403. There was a headwind working against January 2026 since it contaned 1 fewer working day compared with January 2025 and 2 fewer working days than last December. Again, this is an underwhelming closing count considering that mortage expenses are considerably lower.

The contract ratio of 30.8 compared favorably with 25.8 at the start of January, but it still represents a cool market. It is also lower than the 33.0 we saw this time last year, primarily because we have more available supply than a year ago.

The Cromford® Market Index is up from 86.7 last month to 88.1, but it is currently movng lower and is down from 89.3 a year ago. The trend is not particularly strong, but it is currently working in favor of buyers rather then sellers. This could easily turn around if demand picked up and if active listings reach an early peak and start falling as more of them go under contract. Whether this happens or not is still a tough call.

Overall, the market is stable and demand is better than a year ago. However it is not better by enough to compensate for the extra supply that sellers have to compete with. There is still downward pressure on prices in the low and middle ranges, especially in areas with excessive supply. Do not be fooled by the average price per square foot going up 3.7% compared with December. The median sales price is more representative of the bulk of the market (excluding luxury homes) and it went down 1.8% over the last month. Rarely do we see such a mis-match between average $/SF and the median sales price, but that underscores how much better demand is at the top end of the market compared with the lower and middle price ranges. Cromford Report

The market may shift, trends may change, but my commitment doesn’t. Strategic guidance, elevated marketing, and a client-first approach to every transaction, every time. The standard has always been high, and it stays that way. If 2026 is your year, I’m here to guide you through it. Shawn

SHAWN KEANE

REALTOR, ARIZONA
(602) 989-3209 Cell

shawn.keane@azmoves.com

Visit My Website | Home Valuation | Read My Reviews

Buying • Mortgage Rates • My Monthly Market Summary • Selling • January 20, 2026

Mid-Month Market Update from Shawn 1-19-2026

by Shawn Keane

The average long-term U.S. mortgage rate is now down to its lowest level in more than three years. The benchmark 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate eased to 6.06% this week, down from 6.16% last week, mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday. One year ago, the rate averaged 7.04%. The last time the average rate was lower was Sept. 15, 2022, when it was at 6.02%.

📊 Loan Amount: $450,000

Term: 30 years

🟦 At 6.06% interest

Monthly Principal & Interest: ≈ $2,715.36

🟥 At 7.04% interest

Monthly Principal & Interest: ≈ $3,005.96

🔻 Monthly Difference

≈ $290.60 more per month at 7.04%

📈 Annual Difference

$290.60 × 12 ≈ $3,487.20 per year

Affordability Strains Show Signs of Easing

For Buyers

Happy New Year! Buying season has begun in Greater Phoenix, and it’s kicking off with a wave of fresh new listings. In a typical year, January is the most popular month for luxury and retirement community listings to hit the market while March tends to be the peak month for the main stream. Within the first 3-4 weeks of the year, these new listings are met with buyer demand escalating dramatically in January, then tapering off before peaking in April or May.

New listings are coming in weaker than this time last year, but only down 2.5%. That’s still stronger than the 5 years from 2020-2024 which had the weakest counts in 25 years for January listings. Listings under $300K are seeing a significant increase in new supply, up 15% over last year and with nearly 3,800 active listings at this writing, comprising 18% of supply. This is the most affordable range in Greater Phoenix where sales prices are down 2-3% from last year and are continuing to decline. It comprises mostly condos and mobile homes in central cities such as Phoenix and Mesa, and mostly single family homes in the outskirts like Pinal County. All other new listing counts are in line with last year or weaker, which is contributing to a more balanced state between supply and demand as we begin 2026.

A $300K purchase with FHA is approximately $1,860/month before taxes and possible HOA. Mortgage payments on properties under $300K can compete with rent, but not necessarily when tenants are upgrading their living space. For instance, a tenant paying $2,100 in apartment rent in Scottsdale cannot afford to upgrade to a single family home in the same area for the same monthly payment. However, they may be able to purchase a similar unit in the same area, or they could purchase a single family home in an outer city like Maricopa and commute.

This is where the affordable housing debate can get messy. Listing counts are telling us that the supply of affordable homes under $300K is rising and sales of those units are also rising (up 7%), suggesting that affordability strains are easing. However, 2025 sales over $500K were also up 7% while sales within $300K-$500K were near identical. If there were truly a lack of affordable homes, then supply under $300K would be rapidly declining like it did from 2020 to 2022 where there were fewer than 500 for sale, and prices would be rising. But that’s not happening. Evidence suggests that it’s not a lack of affordable homes to purchase, but an aversion to moving out of a desirable area.

For Sellers

2025 ended with total annual sales up 3.5%, equivalent to 2,351 more sales through the MLS than in 2024. Local builder reports* show new home sales down nearly 6% for the year and 2025 permits for new construction were down a significant 21%. Nationally, builder optimism is low for future sales, reportedly due to labor and lot shortages. However, some cities with a lot of builder activity saw sales shoot up the most in 2025.

By number of sales per the Maricopa County Recorder’s Office, the following cities saw the biggest jumps in closed sales last year: 1) Goodyear with 414 more sales, up 16%, median price $486K; 2) Scottsdale with 335 more sales, up 5%, median price $900K; 3) Peoria with 245 more sales, up 7%, median price $515K.

By percentage growth of sales, the following mid-sized cities saw the biggest proportional increases: 1) Waddell up 36% with 178 more sales, median price $468K; 2) Sun Lakes up 32% with 122 more sales, median price $470K; 3) Anthem up 29% with 64 more sales, median price $574K.

The 2025 annual median sales price for Greater Phoenix is $451K, but it’s interesting to note that half of the cities with sales growth had considerably higher median prices. Considering that most of 2025 operated with mortgage rates in the high-6% or low-7% range, entering 2026 with rates ranging in the high-5% and low-6% means payments are at least 10-12% lower on the same priced homes from a year ago. This bodes well for first quarter sales in Greater Phoenix in 2026.

While sales are expected to increase, prices are not. Price is the last measure to move when a market shifts, and it can take up to 3-6 months to emerge. Price appreciation remains stagnant in the middle price ranges, rising in upper ranges, and declining under $400K. Greater Phoenix is pulling out of a buyer’s market and edging towards a balanced state, but a seller’s market isn’t on the horizon.

Source Cromford Report

SHAWN KEANE

REALTOR, ARIZONA
(602) 989-3209 Cell

shawn.keane@azmoves.com

Visit My Website | Home Valuation | Read My Reviews

Markets • My Monthly Market Summary • January 8, 2026

Phoenix Housing Market For 2026 Outlook

by Shawn Keane

What is Phoenix Metro Housing looking like for 2026? Up or Down?

The Phoenix Metro Outlook for 2026 calls for moderate, sustainable home price growth shaped by continued demand, easy rates, and balanced inventory dynamics. Affordable and mid-range homes are expected to outperform luxury segments in price gains. The market is shifting toward balanced growth rather than the double-digit boom seen in the past.

I’m in the camp that we will see a modest rise, not a decline, this year. Most predictions indicate that the metro area will see modest growth, with gains expected to range from approximately +2% to +5%. I believe +5% is aggressive. It’s likely to be more in the 1-3% range, which is good news for sellers and buyers alike if buyers get in early.

Continued population and job growth in the Valley support demand. Phoenix remains one of the fastest-growing large metro areas in the US.

I will have an even better pulse on the market given the direction of January’s numbers. As always, I’m on it! Shawn

—————————————————————————————————————–Now to December’s numbers:

Market Summary for the Beginning of 2026

Here are the basics – the ARMLS numbers for January 1, 2026 compared with January 1, 2025 for all areas & types:

Active Listings: 22,248 versus 20,007 last year – up 12% – but down 9.0% from 24,653 last month
Under Contract Listings: 5,782 versus 5,496 last year – up 5.2% – but down 20% from 7,191 last month
Monthly Sales: 6,374 versus 5,576 last year – up 14% – and up 18% from 5,396 last month
Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $303.80 versus $302.98 last year – up 0.3% – and up 2.4% from $296.69 last month
Monthly Median Sales Price: $455,000 versus $450,000 last year – up 1.1% – and up 1.1% from $450,000 last month

Supply continued to fall throughout December and we ended the year down 10% from the end of November. However we still have 12% more supply than we had at the start of 2025, so plenty of choice remains available for most buyers. We would also expect a lot of new listings over the next 12 weeks, some of which are going to be homes whose listings were cancelled or expired in the last 2 months.

The month of December was relatively strong for closings, with more expensive homes dominating in the first 2 weeks and less expensive homes growing more numerous in the last week of the year. The total closing count of 6,374 was up more than 14% compared with December 2025, so is a very respectable total. Despite the holidays there were 22 working days in December 2025, one more day than in December 2024. This gave last month an advantage of 4.8% but since closings were up 14.3% we can count December 2025 as a big win.

A side-effect of such a strong closing number is that listings under contract fell 20% between start of December and the start of January. However the count is still up over 5% from the start of 2025 so we are counting that as a win too.

The healthy numbers of luxury homes that closed in the first 2 weeks of December drove December’s average closed $/SF up by 2.4%. However we ended 2025 up only 0.3%, almost flat with the end of 2024. Median sales prices are not helped much by luxury homes and ended up $5,000 from both November 2025 and December 2024. Not a very significant change.

Sales prices up slightly year over year reinforces confidence in the market but improves affordability because median household incomes rose faster than home prices last year.

Everything now depends on how trends develop during January. Will we see a strong flow of new listings (as we did in 2025) or will supply remain subdued as it was in the last 2 months? Will demand benefit from interest rates which are currently lower than almost the whole of 2025?

Greater Phoenix’s housing market has out-performed low expectations since October and is currently heading back towards the balanced zone.

Overall, things look good for buyers and better for sellers than they experienced during most of last year. But the next few weeks are key to whether that outlook holds. Source Cromford Report

—————————————————————————————————————–

For Tina Tamboer, senior housing analyst with the Cromford Report, the past 18 to 24 months hasn’t been a downturn. It’s a normalization.

“When we say it’s a buyer’s market, I don’t want people to freak out. It’s not the kind of buyer’s market we saw in 2008,” Tamboer says. “This is a market where buyers can actually negotiate again. That’s not a bad thing.”

Tamboer tracks the Valley’s demand-to-supply index, where 100 represents balance. Above 110 signals a seller’s market; below 90, leverage tilts toward buyers. As the new year begins, the index sits around 80, a level she describes as “the best buyer opportunity we’ve seen in years.”

The underlying reason isn’t excess inventory like it has been in the past.

“It’s because demand has been so suppressed,” she explains. “We’re not anywhere close to oversupply. Builders aren’t overproducing and existing homeowners are still locked into low rates.”

Nationally, 80% of homeowners hold a mortgage rate below 5%, a structural headwind against listings returning to pre-pandemic norms.

Still, market activity has improved recently. Mortgage rates, which spiked past 7% in 2023, have held in the low 6% range long enough to rebuild buyer confidence. Tamboer notes that stability matters far more than rate drops.

“In January 2025, rates fell dramatically and people didn’t rush in,” Tamboer says. “They wanted to see if rates would keep dropping. It’s not falling rates that matter, it’s stable rates. People move when they feel like the rate they’re getting today will still be there tomorrow.”

Sales have followed suit. Closed transactions have risen from their 2023 trough and pending sales through 2025 moved closer to seasonal norms. Even with these positive factors, buyers still remain wary and cautious.

Segments under $1 million have softened roughly 2%-3%, while certain mid-tier neighborhoods remain down 10%-15% from their pandemic peaks. Condos have struggled where single-family homes now offer more space for similar prices. The luxury segment, which Tamboer notes is now tied more to the stock market than mortgage rates, continues to buoy median sales prices.

And then there’s the return of concessions, a hallmark of the Valley’s new bargaining power dynamic. More than half of transactions between $200,000 and $600,000 include concessions and builders have extended buydowns and closing-cost incentives longer than many expected. Source Tina Tambour Cromford Report AZ

—————————————————————————————————————

SHAWN KEANE

REALTOR, ARIZONA
(602) 989-3209 Cell

shawn.keane@azmoves.com

Visit My Website | Home Valuation | Read My Reviews

Buying • Markets • My Monthly Market Summary • Selling • December 19, 2025

My last Mid-Market update for 2025 from Shawn

by Shawn Keane

As the year comes to a close, I want to extend my deepest gratitude to every client I’ve had the privilege to serve— past present, and future. Your trust in me is the greatest gift. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year! May your home be filled with love, laughter, and unforgettable moments this holiday season.

Optimism Emerges for 2026 Home Sales

Incomes Up 33% in Maricopa County since 2020

For Buyers

Journalists reporting on housing affordability are frequently quoting sources that reference median household income. Household income can be broken down into two categories, family and non-family households. The US Census defines a family household as two or more people living in a home and related by blood or marriage. Non-family households are all others, including non-related people living as roommates or people living alone. Non-family household income is typically much lower than family income and is more suited for measuring the affordability of rental housing. Family household income is more suited for measuring the affordability of purchasing a home.

From 2020-2024, the median annual household income in Maricopa County rose 33% from $68K to $91K. The non-family median household income rose from $44.5K to $59K. Family income rose from $80K to $108K; and married family income, a subset of family income, rose from $95K to $126K.

The lending industry considers 28% of gross income an affordable monthly payment for mortgage or rent. For a family household that’s roughly a $2,500-$3,000 payment. At a mortgage rate holding steady around 6.25%, that payment supports homes priced between $350,000 and $500,000 in Maricopa County. That budget will support roughly a 1,500-1,800 square foot single family home, which will trend in the mid-$300s in the West Valley, and the mid-$400s in the Southeast Valley.

Incomes are not stagnant in Maricopa County and have been rising at a significant pace since 2020. It’s home values that have been stagnant for 3 years waiting for family incomes to catch up and mortgage rates to decline. Inventory under $500K accounts for roughly 57% of all inventory for sale and is up 16% from last year. With rates holding steady in the low 6% range for the last 4 months, demand and optimism is up for the onset of 2026.

For Sellers

November closings were another success for Q4 2025, up 3.3% from last November, except it was actually better than that. Last November had 19 closing days compared this November with 18 closing days, meaning this year November closed an extra 23 sales per day, putting the improvement at 9% instead of 3%. So far December is also outpacing last year with an extra 14 closings per day on average. If this is a peek into what 2026 may bring, then sellers should be optimistic for contract activity in January.

The big question is how many listings will line up to meet January’s expectation of increased demand. January is typically the top month for luxury, retirement and seasonal community listings to hit the market. However, new listings across all price points and areas often see a peak in March, providing ample selection for Spring buyers. This front-loading of inventory in the first part of the year often results in a rising number of price reductions as well, the level of which depends on whether we enter the year in a buyer’s market, balanced, or seller’s market.

Recent improvements in demand combined with declines in supply are pushing the Market Index back in the direction towards a balanced state. While Greater Phoenix is still in a buyer’s market overall, central and established cities are becoming the first to move back into seller’s markets. Most recently, Phoenix, Mesa and Tempe shifted back into seller’s markets within the last 30 days, putting nearly all cities in the Northeast and Southeast Valley in seller’s markets, with the exception of buyer’s markets Queen Creek and Sun Lakes. Developing cities on the edges of Metro Phoenix are typically the last ones to pull out of a buyer’s market. Pinal County cities, for example, are buyer’s markets except for Apache Junction, which is a seller’s market. The West Valley is a mix as El Mirage is a small seller’s market and Peoria recently shifted into a balanced market, joining Glendale, Avondale and Laveen. All other West Valley cities are buyer’s markets.

Don’t expect much upward pressure on price in the short term, even if your city has shifted back into a seller’s market. Prices can take up to 6 months to show a response to a shift, which means the seller’s market must be maintained, and many of these cities are still quite weak. What sellers can expect is more showing activity, shorter days on market, and less pressure to reduce their price once the Spring buying season begins.

Commentary written by Tina Tamboer, Senior Housing Analyst with The Cromford Report

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Merry Christmas, wishing you and your family a healthy, happy, prosperous New Year!

SHAWN KEANE

REALTOR, ARIZONA
(602) 989-3209 Cell

shawn.keane@azmoves.com

Visit My Website | Home Valuation | Read My Reviews

Markets • My Monthly Market Summary • December 9, 2025

Market Summary for the Beginning of December 2025ut first……..

by Shawn Keane

As the year comes to a close, I want to extend my deepest gratitude to every client I’ve had the privilege to serve— past, present, and future. Your trust in me is the greatest gift. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year! May your home be filled with love, laughter, and unforgettable moments this holiday season.

Here are the basics – the ARMLS numbers for December 1, 2025 compared with December 1, 2024 for all areas & types:

Active Listings: 24,653 versus 21,593 last year – up 14% – but down 5.0% from 25,956 last month
Under Contract Listings: 7,191 versus 6,393 last year – up 12% – but down 2.1% from 7,344 last month
Monthly Sales: 5,389 versus 5,146 last year – up 4.7% – but down 12.7% from 6,173 last month
Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $294.79 versus $290.09 last year – up 1.6% – and up 0.4% from $293.60 last month
Monthly Median Sales Price: $450,000 versus $445,000 last year – up 1.1% – and unchanged from last month

We saw a sharp turnround in supply between October and November thanks to 43% more listing expirations and 20% more cancellations than this time last year. Supply is down 5% in a month which is good news for the remaining sellers. Buyers cannot complain because they still have about 14% more choice than last year.

Mortgage rates are lower than last month and we can report stronger contract activity. The total number of under contract listings is up 12% from this time last year. At first sight sales look low compared with last month but that is because November had 3 fewer working days than October. The comparison with November 2024 is fairer and there we see closings up almost 5% There can be no doubt that demand is on an upward trend at the moment. This is welcome good news for almost everyone after a disappointing Spring and Summer.

When demand is growing and supply is falling, this makes the market more favorable for sellers, trending higher now and will no doubt continue to move in that direction for the rest of the year.

Pricing remains resilient with no signs left of the weakness we saw during the Summer. The average price per square foot is up 1.6% for the last 12 months, which is better than zero but not as high as inflation. Prices are down relative to inflation which when combined with lower interest rates means affordability is improved compared with December 2024. This is because median household earnings continued to increase throughout 2025. Median sales price is also up from a year ago, but about 2% lower when adjusted for inflation.

In summary, the market is looking healthier than we expected 3 months ago. 2025 was a low volume year with only the top end of the market doing well. However Greater Phoenix’s housing market seems determined to show improvement as we approach the end of the year and looks likely to end on a high note. Source Cromford Report

Wage growth has been outpacing consumer prices for the past three years. Yet most people are not feeling it and have constantly expressed negative economic sentiments.

The reason is that everything is more expensive by 28.4% from the pre-Covid period. The cumulative wage gains over the same period have been 32.9%. Those exact figures are not computed by a normal person, rather they are seeing than near 30% price gains in their everyday experience. had inflation not popped in 2022, the cumulative price gain over a comparable period would be about 10%, not really noticeable from a year to year.

As to home prices, it is finally cooling into near zero growth after the supersized gains in the early covid years. The consistent future income gains will make homes more affordable. but the improvements in housing affordability are still marginal because the mortgage rates have a much greater influence on housing affordability. Decline in mortgage rates will therefore be the key to future housing affordability along with adequate housing supply to keep home prices at calm levels. By Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of Research at the National Association of Realtors.

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Buying • Markets • Selling • November 23, 2025

Most Experts Are Not Worried About a Recession

by Shawn Keane

Homebuyers are watching the economy closely, and for good reason. Buying a home is one of the biggest purchases most people ever make. And some recession talk in the media has made a lot of would-be buyers second guess their plans.

In the latest LendingTree survey, almost 2 in 3 Americans said they think a recession is coming. And 74% of respondents say that’s having an impact on their financial decisions.

But here’s the good news: the experts aren’t nearly as concerned.

Most Americans Expect a Recession, But Most Experts Don’t

According to an October report from the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), only 1 in 3 experts surveyed say we may be headed for a recession sometime in the next 12 months (see graph below):

If the expert economists aren’t super worried, should you be? We’re not in a recession right now. And there’s no guarantee we’re heading into one.

What we do have is uncertainty – and the best way to handle that is by leaning on facts, not fear. You can do that by making sure you have the information you need to make an informed decision.

Tips for Buying a Home During Periods of Economic Uncertainty

Here’s the best advice anyone can give right now. While it’s important to keep an eye on what’s happening in the economy, that shouldn’t necessarily overshadow your real-life needs. Economic shifts come and go, but the reasons people buy homes rarely change. Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, explains:

“Well-prepared buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines are likely motivated by personal and lifestyle needs like growing families, new jobs, or retirement. And these considerations can outweigh short-term economic uncertainties . . . ”

Timing your move around real life (not the news cycle) is what matters most.

But here’s the key. If you’re going to buy a home right now, job stability really matters. You need to feel confident in your income and know you can comfortably manage your mortgage payments, even if your situation or the economy shift.

If your job is secure and you’ve built a cushion of savings, experts say you don’t necessarily need to delay. Just keep these tips from the economists at Redfin in mind:

Set a budget and stick to it: Don’t overextend. Make sure your payments are affordable and your savings can cover any surprises. This includes factoring in costs likely to rise, like home insurance and taxes.
Negotiate: There are more homes for sale right now, and other buyers may pull back because of their own fears. That gives you more negotiating power when working with sellers. Use it to get the best deal possible.
Be strategic about payments and mortgage rates: Talk to lenders about what payment you can afford and the rate you can qualify for today, as well as your options if rates go down later on.
Consider selling before you buy: If you already own a home, selling first can reduce the financial pressure and help solidify your budget for your next home.

But nothing replaces the value of having a trusted team around you, especially right now. As Bankrate says:

“Buying a home during a recession can sometimes be a good idea – but only for people who are lucky enough to remain financially stable . . . Be sure to enlist the help of an experienced local real estate agent. Not only do agents know their markets well, they will also work to get you the best deal in any given situation, including a recession.”

Bottom Line

Most Americans think a recession is coming. But most experts don’t.

So, you don’t necessarily have to put your moving plans on hold. If your finances are solid, your job is stable, and you have a real need to move, you can still make it happen.

What’s holding you back from making your next move? Let’s talk it over.

Selling • November 23, 2025

The Top 2 Things Homeowners Need To Know Before Selling

by Shawn Keane

Here’s something you should know before you sell your house. The homeowners who win in today’s market aren’t the ones waiting it out or stepping back. They’re the ones who adapt from the start.

A number of homeowners this year didn’t get the outcome they wanted. But it’s not because something’s wrong with the market. It’s because something wasn’t right with their expectations.

Realtor.com reports 57% more homes have been taken off the market compared to last year. That means they listed… but didn’t sell. But here’s the honest truth. It was mostly because of two things: price and timing.

And if the seller had come in with the right mindset on each, their sale would’ve gone differently. Here are the top 2 things you can learn from those other sellers.

1. Price It Right from Day 1

Let’s start with the most common sticking point: the asking price. Today, 8 in 10 sellers expect to get their asking price or more. But that confidence doesn’t always line up with reality.

According to Redfin, only 1 in 4 (25.3%) sellers are actually getting more than their list price.

And here’s where the mismatch is coming from.

A few years ago, you could set any price and buyers would come running, no matter what the price tag said. Odds are, you’d still sell for over asking. But things are different now.

Buyers have more options than they’ve had in years, so they can afford to be more selective. If your price feels even a little high to them, it’ll get overlooked in a heartbeat.

And for the homeowners who had that happen, some end up pulling their listings instead of making a simple adjustment that could have changed everything. Which is a shame, honestly. Because a small price tweak is usually all it takes to bring buyers in and get the deal done.

According to HousingWire, the average price cut right now is just 4%.

Think about that. Other sellers are listing too high and giving up rather than dropping their price 4%. If they’d just started 4% lower, they may have already sold. So, before you list, talk to your agent about what’s working nearby. They’ll help you find the sweet spot that’s competitive, realistic, and still protecting your bottom line.

And here’s the kicker. If you’ve been in your home for a while, your equity gives you room to set your list price more competitively and still come out way ahead. Unfortunately, those other sellers didn’t seem to realize that.

2. Don’t Rush the Process

Another common misstep: expecting your house to sell in a weekend.

Many sellers right now remember when homes sold in as little as hours – and they expect that to happen today. But in most markets, that’s not the reality anymore.

It takes closer to 60 days to go from listed to sold, which is actually normal (see the gray in the graph below):

It just feels slower because they’re comparing it to the lightning-fast pace of 2020 and 2021.

Think of it like driving 65 mph on the highway, then exiting and going 25. It feels like you’re crawling, but it’s actually the right speed for where you are. That’s what other sellers can’t seem to get over. But you can get ahead of that, by knowing what to expect.

Today’s buyers are more intentional. They’re taking their time, weighing their options, and making thoughtful decisions, which is creating a much healthier housing market.

So, if you’re planning to sell, don’t expect it to happen instantly. And don’t assume your house won’t sell if it doesn’t go under contract in the first weekend.

It’s normal for these things to take time.

If you want to make sure your house sells as quickly as possible, talk to your agent about ways to stand out, whether that’s through staging, photography, or strategic pricing. With the right advice, the right price, and the right prep work, it can still sell quickly.

Bottom Line

If you’re thinking about selling, don’t let the market discourage you, let it guide you. The listings that didn’t sell this year weren’t doomed. They just started with the wrong strategy.

You can still win if you price right, are patient, and work with a local agent who knows how to position your home from the start.

Because in today’s market, success isn’t about waiting for conditions to change. It’s about getting your expectations right from day one.

Home Insurance Costs Are Rising: What Buyers Should Plan For

Why Home Insurance Premiums Are Going Up

Costs Are Going To Be Different Depending on Where You Buy

<img decoding="async" src="https://files.keepingcurrentmatters.com/KeepingCurrentMatters/content/images/20260127/20260202-Average-Home-Insurance-Premiums-by-State-original.png" data-eio="l" />So, What Can You Do About It?

Bottom Line

Top 3 Reasons To Buy a Home Before Spring

Most Americans Expect a Recession, But Most Experts Don’t

Tips for Buying a Home During Periods of Economic Uncertainty

Bottom Line

1. Price It Right from Day 1

2. Don’t Rush the Process

Bottom Line

So, What Can You Do About It?