Markets • My Monthly Market Summary • November 5, 2025

Market Summary for the Beginning of November 2025

by Shawn Keane

Hello to all my fans! Here we are well into the 4^th quarter —where are things going?

Here are the basics – the ARMLS numbers for November 1, 2025 compared with November 1, 2024 for all areas & types:

Active Listings: 29,052 versus 24,127 last year – up 20% – and up 5.4% compared with 27,567 last month
Under Contract Listings: 7,344 versus 6,935 last year – up 5.9% – but down 0.6% from 7,391 last month
Monthly Sales: 6,135 versus 5,831 last year – up 5.2% – but down 0.4% from 6,158 last month
Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $293.75 versus $290.73 last year – up 1.0% – and up 2.3% from $287.21 last month
Monthly Median Sales Price: $450,000 versus $450,000 last year – unchanged – and down 0.9% from $454,000 last month

Supply grew faster than demand once again in October, but the supply trend is weakening now. Despite some lower mortgage rates, demand remains subdued and the market is still suffering from lower than average volumes, despite an improvement compared with last year..

The monthly average $/SF for closed listings rose between September and October and is now 2.7% higher than a year ago, almost as much as the increase in the CPI. However, the median sales price fell back during October and is currently unchanged from a year ago. The reason for the discrepancy between these two signals of pricing is once again the divergence of the luxury market from everything else. Home-buyers with lots of capital are doing very nicely.

First-time home-buyers are still scarce and move-up buyers appear to be uncertain about their future. Luxury and super-luxury buyers are far more confident.

For Buyers

Mortgage rates dropped over 3 months from July 15th (6.85%) to Nov 1st (6.1%), dropping payments by 7.5% across the board and reaching the lowest rate in over a year. Us Real estate professionals swung open the gates and awaited a stampede of buyers to arrive. But, while there was a wave of refinances, purchase applications were stubborn. This is a common phenomenon. While rates are actively dropping, it’s human nature to wait and see where they stabilize before taking action, hoping to save even just a few extra dollars off a payment. Rates ultimately bounced and settled around 6.3%, and after 3 weeks of stability buyer activity finally ticked up to a level better than the past three years for October.

Mortgage rates weren’t the only measure dropping over the past 5 months, so were list prices. Listings under $1M saw asking prices drop an average of 2.5% from May to August, then stabilize in September and October. These properties do not yet have contracts on them, but when they do they will likely be closing in November and December, and possibly at the lowest closing price recorded all year.

The biggest price declines have been seen in the first-time homebuyer price ranges. Since July, sales prices for condos between $250K-$300K in Maricopa County (around 1,000sqft) have dropped 4.3% and are 15% below the peak prices of 2022. Single family homes in Pinal County between $300K-$400K (around 1,700sqft) are down 6.7% from last April, and are also 15% down from the peak of 2022. Single family homes in Maricopa County between $300K-$400K (around 1,500sqft) are down 2.9% from last year and down 13% from the peak of 2022. All of this is happening while the overall median price measure is showing just a mild increase year-over-year for the metro area, and just 4.5% below the peak of 2022. This is a prime example of how broad price measures spanning a large area are not always reflective of specific segments and can be skewed by better performing areas and price ranges.

Seller-paid concessions hit another high for September and October with 56% of MLS closings involving some form of closing cost assistance at a median cost of $10,000, which often includes a temporary rate buydown. This has been a unique hallmark of this housing cycle since rates skyrocketed in 2022. A tool typically used by builders to incentivize buyers has been adopted by everyday sellers and lenders in the resale market in order to compete. As appreciation has been stunted for the past 3-4 years and values declined this year, the number of sellers who can shoulder the cost of these incentives may diminish going forward.

If lower prices, lower mortgage rates, and a high share of seller incentives isn’t enough, seasonally the 4th quarter is the best time to be a buyer in Greater Phoenix. Supply tends to rise right before the holidays, but the rush of buyers doesn’t follow until after the 1st of the year. As a result, there’s a last hurrah of price reductions before Thanksgiving followed by heavier price negotiations and builder incentives as sellers aim to get under contract or close before the end of the year.

It’s common for buyers to get caught up waiting for evidence that it’s the “perfect time” to act, and delaying an affordable purchase in order to land some unicorn price and mortgage rate. Real estate is typically a long-term investment, however. The longer one holds a property, the more equity is built, appreciation accumulated, and risk of loss mitigated.

For Seller

This year has been a slog for sellers (and their agents) to say the least with stock market fluctuations at the beginning of the year stalling luxury sales, and volatility in mortgage rates. But there are signs things have gotten better. Lower mortgage rates and lower prices have stimulated demand in unexpected places. While homebuyer demand between $300K-$500K has been anemic, homes between $500K-$1.5M saw a boost of sales in September, up 19% year-over-year, which increased the market share from 36% to 38% of sales, and increased both the median price and average price per square foot measures for the Valley. The reason could be linked to jumbo mortgage rates dropping below 30-year conventional rates for the first time in 2 years, but also the popularity among high-wage buyers of adjustable-rate mortgages, which are currently averaging 5.8%.

While Greater Phoenix remains in a buyer’s market overall, the Northeast Valley including Fountain Hills, Paradise Valley, and Scottsdale are top seller’s markets, reflecting a drop in supply and sustained demand in these cities. Also seller’s markets: Anthem, El Mirage, Avondale, Chandler, Gilbert, Apache Junction, and Sun Lakes. Balanced markets include Phoenix, Glendale, Sun City West, Tolleson, Mesa, and Tempe. Buyer’s markets are mostly on the edges and outskirts where there is more new home development. They include Peoria (barely), Sun City, Surprise, Goodyear, Litchfield Park, Laveen, Buckeye, Gold Canyon, San Tan Valley, Queen Creek, Maricopa, Arizona City, and Casa Grande.

The 4th quarter is not the best time to be a seller, but going in with the right mindset, patience, and price strategy will go a long way towards obtaining a contract before the end of the year. For those who wish to wait, the 1st quarter comes with both a wave of new competing listings from January through March, and increased contract activity that lasts through May.

Considering Buying or Selling? Let’s Connect.

With over 21 years of experience in the real estate market, I’m here to help you navigate your next move with confidence. Whether you’re looking to buy, sell, or simply explore your options, I’ll provide you with the insights you need to make informed decisions.

Even if you’re not planning to sell for several months, it’s never too early to start preparing. I offer personalized consultations where we can walk through your property together to identify improvements that can maximize your home’s value.

Curious About Your Home’s Value?

Click the Home Valuation link in my signature below for a comprehensive assessment.

Want to know more about your equity? I can also provide an Equity Analysis Report, which might reveal more value in your home than you realize.

Let’s chat soon to start planning your next move.

All the best,

SHAWN KEANE

REALTOR, ARIZONA
(602) 989-3209 Cell

shawn.keane@azmoves.com

Visit My Website | Home Valuation | Read My Reviews

Markets • My Monthly Market Summary • October 7, 2025

Market Summary for the Beginning of October 2025

by Shawn Keane

“Downward pricing pressure is likely to persist through the end of the year unless interest rates experience a significant decline. There was a 2-week uptick in buyer traffic and sales in September, as rates came down to the 6% range for conventional loans and 5.5% for VA & FHA loans. Since then, the rates have increased again.

Here are the basics – the ARMLS numbers for October 1, 2025 compared with October 1, 2024 for all areas & types:

Active Listings: 24,450 versus 19,643 last year – up 25% – and up 5.2% from 23,238 last month
Under Contract Listings (including Pending: 7,391 versus 7,261 last year – up 1.8% – and up 1.8% from 7,260 last month
Monthly Sales: 6,141 versus 5,484 last year – up 12% – and up 3.6% from 5,928 last month
Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $287.14 versus $284.77 last year – up 0.8% – and up 2.2% from $280.97 last month
Monthly Median Sales Price: $454,000 versus $442,000 last year – up 2.7% – and up 2.6% from $442,540 last month

September saw stronger demand thanks to lower interest rates, particularly during the first two weeks. Listings under contract rose 1.8% compared to a year earlier and sales closed during September were 12% higher than last year. However, this is partly because 2025 had one extra working day in September accounting for 5% of the difference.

Prices recovered from the decline they suffered over the previous 4 months and now stand higher than they did 12 months ago. However, some of that is because of a change in the sales mix, with luxury homes gaining ground over the last 4 weeks.

It is not all good news for sellers. Supply rose by over 5% over the past month and that upward trend looks likely to last until November at least. The surge in demand we saw starting in mid-August has largely petered out by the end of September as interest rates bounced back after the low point reached in mid-September. Source Cromford Report

Why Oct. 12-18 might be the best week to buy a home

Real estate experts say the week offers a rare trifecta—more listings, lower prices and less competition. “I expect this market momentum shift to magnify typical seasonal trends that favor home buyers in the fall,” says Danielle Hale, realtor.com®’s chief economist.

Full Story: REALTOR® Magazine (9/17)

Considering Buying or Selling? Let’s Connect.

Curious About Your Home’s Value?

Click the Home Valuation link in my signature below for a comprehensive assessment.

Want to know more about your equity? I can also provide an Equity Analysis Report, which might reveal more value in your home than you realize.

Let’s chat soon to start planning your next move.

All the best,

SHAWN KEANE

REALTOR, ARIZONA
(602) 989-3209 Cell

shawn.keane@azmoves.com

Visit My Website | Home Valuation | Read My Reviews

Buying • Markets • Selling • September 5, 2025

History Shows the Housing Market Always Recovers Sept 2025

by Shawn Keane

History Shows the Housing Market Always Recovers

Now that the market is slowing down, homeowners who haven’t sold at the price they were hoping for are increasingly pulling their homes off the market. According to the latest data from Realtor.com, the number of homeowners taking their homes off the market is up 38% since the start of this year and 48% since the same time last June. For every 100 new listings in June, about 21 homes were taken off the market.

And if you’ve made that same choice, you’re probably frustrated things didn’t go the way you wanted. It’s hard when you feel like the market isn’t working with you. But while slowdowns can be painful in the moment, history tells us they don’t last forever.

History Repeats Itself: Proof from the Past

This isn’t the first time the housing market has experienced a slowdown. Here are some other notable times when home sales dropped significantly:

1980s: When mortgage rates climbed past 18%, buyers stopped cold. Sales crawled for years. But as soon as rates came down, sales surged back, and the market found its footing again.
2008: The Great Financial Crisis was one of the toughest housing downturns in history. Sales and prices both dropped hard. Still, sales rebounded once the economy recovered.
2020: During COVID, sales disappeared overnight, and many people had to put their plans on hold. Yet the recovery was faster than anyone expected, with a surge of buyers re-entering the market as soon as restrictions eased.

The lesson is clear: no matter the cause, the market always rebounds.

Today’s Situation: Where We Stand Now

Over the past few years, home sales have been sluggish. And one big reason why is affordability. Mortgage rates rose at a record-breaking pace in 2022, and home prices were climbing at the same time. That combination put buying out of reach for many people. And when demand slows, home sales do too.

The Outlook: Why Things Will Improve

But here’s the encouraging part. Forecasts show sales are expected to pick up again moving into 2026.

Last year, just about 4 million homes sold (shown in gray in the graph below). And this year is looking very similar (shown in blue). But the average of the latest forecasts from Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), and the National Association of Realtors (NAR) show the experts believe there will be around 4.6 million home sales in 2026 (shown in green).

And a big reason behind that projection is the expectation that mortgage rates will come down a bit, making it easier for more buyers to jump back in.

That means what’s happening now is part of a cycle we’ve seen before. Every slowdown in the past has eventually given way to more activity, and this one will too.

Just like the 1980s, 2008, and 2020, today’s dip in home sales is temporary.

What That Means for You

If you’ve paused your moving plans, you did what you thought was right. Your frustration is valid. But it’s also important to remember the bigger picture. Housing slowdowns don’t last forever.

That’s where your local real estate agent comes in. Their job is to keep a close eye on the market for you. When the first signs of a rebound appear, they’ll help you spot the shift early so you can relist with confidence.

Bottom Line

If today’s housing market feels stuck, remember it’s never stayed down for good. Slowdowns end, activity returns, and people get moving again. So, let’s connect, because when the next wave of buyers shows up, you won’t want to miss it.

As activity picks up again, will you be ready to put your house back on the market, or do you need to move sooner?

Buying • Markets • My Monthly Market Summary • Selling • September 5, 2025

Market Summary for the Beginning of August 2025

by Shawn Keane

Hello to all my fans…..

Here are the basics – the ARMLS numbers for September 1, 2025 compared with September 1, 2024 for all areas & types:

Active Listings: 23,238 versus 18,430 last year – up 28% – but down 2.2% from 24,091 last month
Under Contract Listings (including Pending): 7,260 versus 6,658 last year – up 9.0% – but down 1.5% from 7,369 last month
Monthly Sales: 5,900 versus 5,727 last year – up 3.0% – but down 4.7% from 6,193 last month
Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $281.04 versus $288.98 last year – down 2.7% – and down 1.3% from $284.84 last month
Monthly Median Sales Price: $442,540 versus $440,000 last year – up 0.6% – and up 0.1% from $451,995 last month

Sellers have had a rough year so far, but the last two months have seen their troubles ease a little. Supply dropped again during August, although much less than in July. Active listings without a contract fell 2.2% compared with 6.2% last month. We have a feeling that we are close to the end of this trend as supply normally starts to grow between Labor Day and Thanksgiving. The sellers that remain in the game must thank those that gave up – cancelled listings were numerous over the last 2 months – 4,737 compared with 3,516 in the same period last year.

Unlike last month, there is also some good news for sellers in the demand numbers. It seems that buyers prefer 30-year fixed interest rates around 6.5% to those between 6.75% and 7.0%. Not exactly surprising, but we are able to demonstrate some evidence for this. Listings under contract ended the month up 9% compared to the same time last year. Last month they were up only 1%.

Monthly sales were improved too, up 3% compared with last year (better than the 0.8% growth we saw last month). This understates the improvement because we had only 21 working days in August 2025 and 22 in August 2024. A 3% advantage to August 2025 therefore translates to a 8% advantage in closed sales per day.

Buyers get good news in the pricing numbers. Closed listings sold for 2.7% less per square foot last month compared to August 2024. With inflation running at 2.7%, affordability in $/SF terms has improved well over 5% compared to 12 months ago. Maybe this is also a reason for the demand improving during August. For those optimistic sellers who would prefer to believe that pricing stayed flat, we recommend the monthly median sale price.

You can always pick and choose which statistics you want to believe, and human nature means that most people will believe what they want to anyway. We think pricing continues to face downward pressure and is likely to do so until the Cromford® Market Index moves over 90 again. Right now it is looking good for a move above 80 at least. Source Cromford Report

“Downward pricing pressure is likely to persist through the end of the year unless interest rates experience a significant decline. However, rates have recently reached a five-month low, which has contributed to stronger foot traffic and an uptick in contracts.”

Considering Buying or Selling? Let’s Connect.

Curious About Your Home’s Value?
Click the Home Valuation link in my signature below for a comprehensive assessment.

Want to know more about your equity? I can also provide an Equity Analysis Report, which might reveal more value in your home than you realize.

Let’s chat soon to start planning your next move.

Buying • Selling • August 6, 2025

Selling and Buying at the Same Time? Here’s What You Need To Know

by Shawn Keane

If you’re a homeowner planning to move, you’re probably wondering what the process is going to look like and what you should tackle first:

Is it better to start by finding your next home?
Or should you sell your current house before you go out looking?

Ultimately, what’s right for you depends on a lot of factors. And that’s where an agent’s experience can really help make your next step clear.

They know your local market, the latest trends, and what’s working for other homeowners right now. And they’ll be able to make a recommendation based on their expertise and your needs.

But here’s a little bit of a sneak peek. In many cases today, getting your current home on the market first can put you in a better spot. Here’s why that order tends to work best (and how an agent can help).

The Advantages of Selling First

1. You’ll Unlock Your Home Equity

Selling your current home before you try to buy your next one allows you to access the equity you’ve built up – and based on home price appreciation over the past few years, that’s no small number. Data from Cotality (formerly CoreLogic) shows the average homeowner is sitting on $302K in equity today.

And once you sell, you can use that equity to pay for the down payment on your next house (and maybe even more). You could even have enough to buy your next house in cash. That’s a big deal, and it could make your next move a whole lot easier on your wallet.

2. You Won’t Be Juggling Two Mortgages

Trying to buy before you sell means you could wind up holding two mortgages, even if just for a few months. That can get expensive, fast – especially if there are unexpected repairs or delays. Selling first removes that stress and helps you move forward without the financial strain. As Ramsey Solutions says:

“It’s best to sell your old home before buying a new one to avoid unnecessary risks and possible headaches.”

3. You’ll Be in a Stronger Position When You Make an Offer

Sellers love a clean, simple offer. If you’ve already sold your house, you don’t need to make your offer contingent on that sale – and that can help you stand out. Your agent can position your offer to be as strong as possible, so you have the best shot at getting the home you want.

This can be a big advantage in competitive markets where sellers prefer buyers with fewer strings attached.

One Thing To Keep in Mind

But, like with anything in life, there are tradeoffs. As you weigh your options, consider this potential drawback, too:

1. You May Need a Place To Stay (Temporarily)

Once your house sells, you may need a short-term rental or to stay with family until you can move into your next home. Your agent can help you negotiate things like a post-closing occupancy (renting the home from the buyer for a set period) or flexible closing dates to help smooth out that transition as much as possible.

Here’s a simple visual that can help you think through your options (see below):

But the best way to determine what’s best for you and your specific situation? Talk to a trusted local agent.

Bottom Line

In many cases, selling first doesn’t just give you clarity, it gives you options. It helps you buy with more confidence, more financial power, and less pressure.

If you’re ready to make a move but you’re not sure where to begin, let’s talk. We can walk through your potential equity, your timing, and your local market conditions so you can decide what’s right for you.

Selling • August 6, 2025

The 3 Things You Risk by Pricing Too High 8.2025

by Shawn Keane

The 3 Things You Risk by Pricing Too High

When selling your house, the price you choose isn’t just a number, it’s a strategy. And in today’s market, that strategy needs to be sharp.

The number of homes for sale is climbing. And that means buyers have more choices and can be more selective. If your price doesn’t line up with what else is out there, they’ll scroll right past it and go on to the next one.

Pricing right from the start is your best move – and a great agent can help make sure you do.

Overpricing Comes at a Cost

And more sellers are finding that out the hard way. They list their house based on how things were a year ago – or based on a neighbor’s sale that happened under completely different circumstances. Then, when their house doesn’t sell, they’re left with three tough choices:

Drop the price: Cutting the price might help get more eyes on the house again, but it can also trigger red flags. Buyers may wonder what’s wrong with it. And that’s going to impact any offers you get after the price cut.
Take it off the market: Some sellers give up on the idea of selling right now. The worst part about this is it means putting their future plans on the back burner. That dream of more space, downsizing, or relocating? On pause.
Rent it out: Others go the landlord route, but managing tenants and navigating leases isn’t always the simple fallback it seems. Renting can work, but it’s often a lot more hassle than people expect.

None of those options were part of the original plan. And honestly, none of them are where you should end up if you wanted to sell. Here’s a look at how a local agent’s expertise can help you avoid these headaches. Let’s use price cuts as an example.

Where You Live Makes a Difference

While the number of price cuts is up nationally, data shows some parts of the country are seeing far more of them than others. It all comes down to how much inventory has grown in that area (see map below):

As Realtor.com explains:

“Regionally, price reductions in June were significantly more common in the South and West (23% of listings) than they were in the Northeast (13% of listings), reflecting the inventory divergence across these regions.”

That means pricing isn’t one-size-fits-all. What’s happening nationally might not reflect what’s happening in your zip code, and that’s why you shouldn’t try to determine your list price on your own.

How a Great Agent Helps You Nail the Price

A skilled agent doesn’t just toss out a number. As Zillow says:

“Well-priced homes are more likely to sell quickly, but pricing your home to sell quickly and for maximum dollar requires strategy and knowledge of your local market. You need to have a clear-eyed view of your home in relation to the competition, and knowledge about whether you’re in a buyers or sellers market. It also helps to know what buyers in your area can afford.”

And that’s all knowledge your agent will have. They study your local market, compare recent sales, and factor in your goals and buyer behavior. Based on what’s happening where you live, sometimes the best play will be pricing right at current market value. Other times pricing a little lower actually will spark more offers and ultimately get you a better final sale price.

So don’t skimp on the strategy or on your agent. With their local market know-how, you’ll be able to sell quickly, even in a shifting market.

Bottom Line

Overpricing can lead to tough choices you never want to face. But with the right price, and the right guidance, you can skip the stress and sell with confidence. Let’s connect so you have a pricing strategy that works for today’s market and gets you where you want to go.

My Monthly Market Summary • August 6, 2025

Market Summary for the Beginning of August 2025

by Shawn Keane

Here are the basics – the ARMLS numbers for August 1, 2025 compared with August 1, 2024 for all areas & types:

Active Listings: 24,091 versus 17,484 last year – up 38% – but down 6.2% from 25,683 last month
Under Contract Listings (including Pending) 7,369 versus 7,287 last year – up 1.1% – but down 4.3% from 7,702 last month
Monthly Sales: 6,156 versus 6,6207 last year – down 0.8% – and down 7.3% from 6,638 last month
Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $284.83 versus $286.62 last year – down 0.6% – and down 2.9% from $293.23 last month
Monthly Median Sales Price: $441,995 versus $440,000 last year – up 0.5% – but down 1.8% from $450,000 last month

Sellers can take comfort from the decline in supply, down about 6% from a month ago, though still up 38% from this time last year. Much of the decline was due to cancellations and expiries, up 7% and 15% compared with the previous month. Many sellers are taking a time-out but those that remain have the advantage of less competition.

Unfortunately there is little comfort in the demand numbers. Closed sales were slightly down on July 2024 and dropped 7.3% from June. Under contract counts managed to beat August 1, 2024 by 1.1% but are down 4.3% from a month ago.

Pricing is now in a firm downward trend now that the top end of the market is quiet for the summer. The average $/SF for July dropped almost 3% compared with June and the monthly median fell another 1.8%.

August looks likely to give us more of the same. We are expecting supply to decline further as more sellers withdraw, though this pattern is likely to end during September. We usually get a second wind for new listings as we move into Autumn, especially for the luxury and 55+ sectors.

Demand is stuck in first gear but those buyers who are active are being treated with the utmost respect. This is in stark contrast to 2021-2022 when most attractive listings received multiple offers within days and buyers had to work hard to even get noticed.

Pricing in nominal terms remains at around the same level as three years ago, at least outside the luxury sector. However inflation has reduced the buying power of the dollar, which means that homes are now significantly more affordable than they were in August 2022. Source Cromford Report

The 3 Things You Risk by Pricing Too High

When selling your house, the price you choose isn’t just a number, it’s a strategy.
Continue Reading

Will Mortgage Rates Come Down?

A common thought among today’s buyers is: I’m just going to wait for rates to come down. But is that a smart strategy?

“If you’re looking for a substantial interest rate drop in 2025, you’ll likely be left waiting. The latest news from the Federal Reserve and other key economic data point toward steady mortgage rates on par with what we see today.”

In other words, don’t try to time the market or wait for a drop that may not be coming.

Most experts say rates will remain in the 6s, and current projections have them settling in the mid-6% range by the end of this year.

Rates today, on average, are at 6.75%. I project that rates can get as low as 6% next year. If you try to time the market for the best rate, you may pay a much higher price for your next home. There is pent-up demand on the sidelines, and once rates come down, there will be added competition and possible multiple offers for the home you’re interested in, which could lead to higher prices.

Thinking of buying or selling? Let’s talk. With over 21 years of experience, I’ll help you navigate the market and make informed decisions.

Are you interested in what your home is worth? Click the Home Valuation link below in my signature line. How about an equity analysis report? You may have more equity than you’re aware of.

Buying • Mortgage Rates • July 8, 2025

What You Should Know About Getting a Mortgage Today 2025

by Shawn Keane

If you’ve been putting off buying a home because you thought getting approved would be too hard, know this: qualifying for a mortgage is starting to get a bit more achievable, but lending standards are still strong.

Buying • Markets • July 8, 2025

Think No One’s Buying Homes Right Now? Think Again. 2025 July

by Shawn Keane

If you’ve seen headlines saying home sales are down compared to last year, you might be thinking – is it even a good time to sell?

My Monthly Market Summary • July 8, 2025

July Phoenix Housing Market Update 2025

by Shawn Keane

Here are the basics – the ARMLS numbers for July 1, 2025 compared with July 1, 2024 for all areas & types:

Active Listings: 25,683 versus 18,121 last year – up 42% – but down 3.4% from 26,580 last month
Under Contract Listings: 7,702 versus 7,402 last year – up 4.1% – but down 2.9% from 7,936 last month
Monthly Sales: 6,629 versus 6,319 last year – up 4.9% – but down 6.8% from 7,114 last month
Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $293.08 versus $295.31 last year – down 0.8% – and down 2.4% from $300.16 last month
Monthly Median Sales Price: $450,000 the same as last year – but down 1.1% from $455,000 last month

Though the changes were small, there was good news for sellers on both supply and demand compared to last month. We saw a significant number of cancellations and expirations at the end of the second quarter, meaning we have less supply as we start the third quarter. We enjoyed one extra working day in June 2025 compared to June 2024, so sales going up 4.9% is about par for the course, rather than a win. However listings under contract are up compared to a year ago as buyers react to a slight reduction in mortgage rates. This is genuine good news. They may also be reacting to falling asking prices as buyers inject more realism into their listings. Closed prices are down sharply from May when measured by average $/SF and are now slightly lower than last year. The median sales price is the same as last year but down 1.1% from last month.

The good news on supply and demand is welcome and is enough to stop the Cromford® Market Index from dropping further. If current trends continue, then it could well start to rise again. However, the increased demand is fragile and might disappear if mortgage rates head back up towards 7% again. Also the reduction in supply is largely due to sellers giving up, which is not as positive a sign as increased closing rates. Many of these expired and cancelled listings are likely to come back again in the fourth quarter, although we know of several that have been converted to rental listings instead.

The high-end of the market remains strong, but it tends to be much less active during the summer, and the entry-level market is still trending weaker. For this reason, we would expect price measurements to be flat to lower during the next 3 months. This means homes are getting cheaper relative to everything else. At some point, especially if interest rates also make a move lower, then demand could see a nice recovery. Home ownership is still very desirable. Source Cromford Report

As 2025 unfolds, it’s clear the Phoenix housing market isn’t crashing — it’s recalibrating. Prices are stabilizing, inventory is gradually improving, and well-prepared buyers are staying active.

Phoenix continues to attract with job growth, quality of life, and steady in-migration. Still, interest rates, affordability, policy uncertainty, and equity gaps remain hurdles.

The fundamentals are strong — it’s about patience and perseverance.”

Buyers are adjusting to higher interest rates with more confidence than expected. If you can afford to buy, now is probably a good time.

Thinking of buying or selling? Let’s talk. With over 21 years of experience, I’ll help you navigate the market and make informed decisions.

Are you interested in what your home is worth? Click the Home Valuation link below in my signature line. How about an equity analysis report? You may have more equity than you’re aware of.