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Here are the basics – the ARMLS numbers for July 1, 2025 compared with July 1, 2024 for all areas & types:
- Active Listings: 25,683 versus 18,121 last year – up 42% – but down 3.4% from 26,580 last month
- Under Contract Listings: 7,702 versus 7,402 last year – up 4.1% – but down 2.9% from 7,936 last month
- Monthly Sales: 6,629 versus 6,319 last year – up 4.9% – but down 6.8% from 7,114 last month
- Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $293.08 versus $295.31 last year – down 0.8% – and down 2.4% from $300.16 last month
- Monthly Median Sales Price: $450,000 the same as last year – but down 1.1% from $455,000 last month
Though the changes were small, there was good news for sellers on both supply and demand compared to last month. We saw a significant number of cancellations and expirations at the end of the second quarter, meaning we have less supply as we start the third quarter. We enjoyed one extra working day in June 2025 compared to June 2024, so sales going up 4.9% is about par for the course, rather than a win. However listings under contract are up compared to a year ago as buyers react to a slight reduction in mortgage rates. This is genuine good news. They may also be reacting to falling asking prices as buyers inject more realism into their listings. Closed prices are down sharply from May when measured by average $/SF and are now slightly lower than last year. The median sales price is the same as last year but down 1.1% from last month.
The good news on supply and demand is welcome and is enough to stop the Cromford® Market Index from dropping further. If current trends continue, then it could well start to rise again. However, the increased demand is fragile and might disappear if mortgage rates head back up towards 7% again. Also the reduction in supply is largely due to sellers giving up, which is not as positive a sign as increased closing rates. Many of these expired and cancelled listings are likely to come back again in the fourth quarter, although we know of several that have been converted to rental listings instead.
The high-end of the market remains strong, but it tends to be much less active during the summer, and the entry-level market is still trending weaker. For this reason, we would expect price measurements to be flat to lower during the next 3 months. This means homes are getting cheaper relative to everything else. At some point, especially if interest rates also make a move lower, then demand could see a nice recovery. Home ownership is still very desirable. Source Cromford Report
As 2025 unfolds, it’s clear the Phoenix housing market isn’t crashing — it’s recalibrating. Prices are stabilizing, inventory is gradually improving, and well-prepared buyers are staying active.
Phoenix continues to attract with job growth, quality of life, and steady in-migration. Still, interest rates, affordability, policy uncertainty, and equity gaps remain hurdles.
The fundamentals are strong — it’s about patience and perseverance.”
Buyers are adjusting to higher interest rates with more confidence than expected. If you can afford to buy, now is probably a good time.
Thinking of buying or selling? Let’s talk. With over 21 years of experience, I’ll help you navigate the market and make informed decisions.
Are you interested in what your home is worth? Click the Home Valuation link below in my signature line. How about an equity analysis report? You may have more equity than you’re aware of.
