Market Summary for the Beginning of December 2025ut first……..

As the year comes to a close, I want to extend my deepest gratitude to every client I’ve had the privilege to serve— past, present, and future. Your trust in me is the greatest gift.  Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!  May your home be filled with love, laughter, and unforgettable moments this holiday season.

Here are the basics – the ARMLS numbers for December 1, 2025 compared with December 1, 2024 for all areas & types:

• Active Listings: 24,653 versus 21,593 last year – up 14% – but down 5.0% from 25,956 last month
• Under Contract Listings: 7,191 versus 6,393 last year – up 12% – but down 2.1% from 7,344 last month
• Monthly Sales: 5,389 versus 5,146 last year – up 4.7% – but down 12.7% from 6,173 last month
• Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $294.79 versus $290.09 last year – up 1.6% – and up 0.4% from $293.60 last month
• Monthly Median Sales Price: $450,000 versus $445,000 last year – up 1.1% – and unchanged from last month

We saw a sharp turnround in supply between October and November thanks to 43% more listing expirations and 20% more cancellations than this time last year. Supply is down 5% in a month which is good news for the remaining sellers. Buyers cannot complain because they still have about 14% more choice than last year.

Mortgage rates are lower than last month and we can report stronger contract activity. The total number of under contract listings is up 12% from this time last year. At first sight sales look low compared with last month but that is because November had 3 fewer working days than October. The comparison with November 2024 is fairer and there we see closings up almost 5% There can be no doubt that demand is on an upward trend at the moment. This is welcome good news for almost everyone after a disappointing Spring and Summer.

When demand is growing and supply is falling, this makes the market more favorable for sellers, trending higher now and will no doubt continue to move in that direction for the rest of the year.

Pricing remains resilient with no signs left of the weakness we saw during the Summer. The average price per square foot is up 1.6% for the last 12 months, which is better than zero but not as high as inflation. Prices are down relative to inflation which when combined with lower interest rates means affordability is improved compared with December 2024. This is because median household earnings continued to increase throughout 2025. Median sales price is also up from a year ago, but about 2% lower when adjusted for inflation.

In summary, the market is looking healthier than we expected 3 months ago. 2025 was a low volume year with only the top end of the market doing well. However Greater Phoenix’s housing market seems determined to show improvement as we approach the end of the year and looks likely to end on a high note.  Source Cromford Report

Wage growth has been outpacing consumer prices for the past three years.  Yet most people are not feeling it and have constantly expressed negative economic sentiments.

The reason is that everything is more expensive by 28.4% from the pre-Covid period. The cumulative wage gains over the same period have been 32.9%. Those exact figures are not computed by a normal person, rather they are seeing than near 30% price gains in their everyday experience.  had inflation not popped in 2022, the cumulative price gain over a comparable period would be about 10%, not really noticeable from a year to year.

As to home prices, it is finally cooling into near zero growth after the supersized gains in the early covid years. The consistent future income gains will make homes more affordable. but the improvements in housing affordability are still marginal because the mortgage rates have a much greater influence on housing affordability. Decline in mortgage rates will therefore be the key to future housing affordability along with adequate housing supply to keep home prices at calm levels.     By Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of Research at the National Association of Realtors.

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