Phoenix Housing Market Update Dec 2024

Hello to all my readers.  Please feel free to call me for a no-obligation buyer or listing consultation.  Maybe you’re just curious about how much equity you have in your home.   I think you’ll be pleased!

Here are the basics – the ARMLS numbers for December 1, 2024 compared with December 1, 2023 for all areas & types:

Active listing counts peaked at last on Nov 24 at just over 22,000 and have started to decline. This is a seasonal pattern that usually repeats every year with the declining pattern lasting for 5 to 8 weeks. The peak was later than average but we are now up 35% from last year, which is an improvement compared with 40% last month, at least from a seller’s perspective.

There were 21 working days in November 2024, and 22 in November 2023. This means we could have expected a 4.5% annual decline in monthly closings. Instead we got an 11% increase. This is a positive sign that demand is no longer declining. This is reinforced by the annual sales rate which reached a low point of 69,527 at the end of September but has now crept up to the 71,000 mark. This remains low compared to normal, but at least the trend is upwards again.

Under contract counts also look better than this time last year – up 9%, but they fell back almost 8% from last month and remain at a weak level.

Overall, demand is showing a few signs of life with the Cromford® Demand Index up to 77 from the low point of 73.1 we saw in September. However the Cromford® Supply Index has risen from 75 to 89 over the same period, so buyers have benefited from more choice and sellers are suffering increased competition.

Pricing remains subdued and stable with the monthly average $/SF for closed listings almost unchanged from this time last year. With the Cromford® Market Index below 90 and contract ratio hovering around 30, there is almost no upward pricing pressure and downward pressure in the outer fringes of the Greater Phoenix area. But the high-end luxury market is far more buoyant than the mainstream and this is tending to support the $/SF readings, especially for pending and under contract listings, where high-end properties have an out-sized impact.

The luxury market is feeding off the higher pricing in the stock and crypto markets but the mainstream housing market is still waiting for better news on mortgage rates.

One of the biggest questions on everyone’s minds right now is: when will mortgage rates come down?

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Merry Christmas!    Wow, how fast this year has gone by!

All the best,