Hello from Shawn; where will things be in a year

You can click below to see what others say about how the 2025 housing market may look like.

My thoughts and some statistical facts: As long as the economy can maintain jobs and interest rates continue their downward projection, the housing market should continue to support these levels and likely move up in 2025.

However, a lot can change in the coming months; the consumer is looking financially stressed, and there are signs everywhere that they are pulling back on spending.  Overall, delinquency rates for credit cards and auto loans have increased; in 2024, auto loan balances were 90 or more days delinquent, the highest rate since early 2021.  The delinquency rate on credit card loans has almost doubled compared to early 2021, and credit card loan balances have increased by nearly 30% since early 2021, an all-time high (many Americans are using their credit cards for essential living expenses).  Then you have the housing affordability index, which has declined over the past four years; the Housing Affordability Index, which measures whether a typical family earns enough income to qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced home, has dropped to its lowest levels since 1996.  This indicates that housing has become less affordable for the average American household.

I mention all this because it could profoundly affect the direction of the housing market in the next year or so.  Did you know that 28% of all home sales in Arizona this year were from cash buyers, leaving 72% that need a loan?

Looking ahead to 2025, it’s important to know what experts are projecting for the housing market.

SHAWN KEANE