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ALERT: THE MARKET IS SHIFTING..
Market Summary for the Beginning of June
Hello, hope you’re all doing well!
Here are the basics – the ARMLS numbers for June 1, 2024 compared with June 1, 2023 for all areas & types:
- Active Listings: 17,129 versus 11,730 last year – up 54% – and up 5.3% from 17,129 last month
- Under Contract Listings: 8,324 versus 9,028 last year – down 7.8% – and down 11% from 9,336 last month
- Monthly Sales: 7,508 versus 8,107 last year – down 7.4% – but up 6.6% from 7,046 last month
- Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $297.71 versus $287.67 last year – up 3.5% – but down 2.9% from $306.61 last month
- Monthly Median Sales Price: $450,000 versus $425,000 last year – up 5.9% – and unchanged from $450,000 last month (# is skewed somewhat, read below)
We are now seeing a weakening trend in the market. Sellers are nervous and buyers are unenthusiastic. We are not in a buyer’s market overall, but some significant markets are. If current trends continue then more areas could join them.
Supply continues to climb, which is unusual for this time of year and we notice that the rate of climb has increased since last month. Buyers have 54% more homes to choose from than they had last year but still face 30-year mortgage rates over 7% which is limiting demand. Sellers are starting to face serious competition from each other and their agents are having to work hard to get their homes sold.
Most of the slightly positive signs we saw last month have disappeared. We have far fewer pending listings than last month and under contract listings are down 7.8% from this time last year. The closed sales count for May was higher than April but down 7.4% compared with last year.
Pricing was unexpectedly strong in April but May has seen this trend reverse and the average price per sq. ft. is now up only 3.5% for the last year. The median sale price was unchanged, as it is far less affected by the luxury home market. It is up just under 6% compared to a year ago.
We are entering the weakest time of the year, between June and September when luxury home buyers are thin on the ground. They tend to find cooler places to hang out than face the heat of a Phoenix summer house hunting expedition. Investors are busy during the summer as bargains are easier to find and gross margins on fix-and-flips are looking very healthy these days. Investors tend to pay less than market value, so this also drives the average $/SF lower between June and September. We expect pricing to be flat to lower over the next 3 months, after a strong rise between January and May.
The new home market remains healthier than the re-sale market and this creates extra competition for sellers in areas and price ranges where home builders are active.
Go to my website for up-to-date information and a special feature called “Neighborhood News” “the best way to stay connected to what’s happening in the real estate market in your area”. See homes that are for sale and recently sold, find out if home sales in your neighborhood are trending up or down, see what homes around you are currently selling for. Also, you can search real time listings in any area of the market under (Find Your Dream Home.) Check it out and stay updated with my daily blog and monthly market report. Go Here: My Website–Find Your Dream Home
(Click here to see What is my Home Value I will send you results within minutes.)
Things to consider when buying a home, Summer 2024 Edition:
Things to consider when selling your house, Summer 2024 edition:
If you’re considering selling or buying, please give me a call to discuss your situation and current market conditions.
The best compliment is a referral to your family and friends!
Thank you,
Shawn
