Market Summary for the Beginning of 2024

Market Summary for the Beginning of 2024

Here are the basics – the ARMLS numbers for January 1, 2024 compared with January 1, 2023 for all areas & types:

• Active Listings:14,593 versus 16,298 last year – down 10.5% – and down 8.7% from 15,981 last month
• Under Contract/Pending Listings: 5,127 versus 5,456 last year – down 6.0% – and down 12.6% from 5,867 last month
• Monthly Sales: 4,929 versus 5,138 last year – down 4.1% – but up 6.4% from 4,634 last month
• Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $284.85 versus $265.90 last year – up 7.1% – but down 1.5% from $289.30 last month
• Monthly Median Sales Price: $429,990 versus $412,000 last year – up 4.4% – but down 2.1% from $439,000 last month

The market has improved for sellers in some ways since last month. The supply of active listings is down almost 9% since December 1 and down more than 10% from a year ago. It is always good for a seller to have less competition from other homes. The monthly sales count for December was an improvement over November, but is still down from a year ago, when things were already not too good. So, this is neutral for sellers. The pending and under contract counts are downright bad for sellers, down sharply from last month and significantly lower than a year ago.

Considering how much mortgage rates have fallen in the last two months; the numbers can be described as fairly disappointing from a seller’s perspective. Lower mortgage rates are supposed to bring out more buyers. So far that is barely noticeable. From a buyer’s perspective this is good news because they have less competition to worry about.

Prices are still stable, up by more than 7% from this time last year when measured by $/SF, and up 4.4% if measured by median sales price. This is a shade more than the latest rise in the Consumer Price Index. The difference between the two price measurements is caused by the strength in pricing in the luxury market. Median sales prices are dominated by the entry-level and mid-range markets which have been weaker than the top end.

We are still very short of 2024 data to show which way things are heading. Both supply and demand are picking up, as we would always expect in January. Supply has risen 0.5% in the first 3 days while listings under contract are up 3%. This is barely enough data to draw a conclusion, but the indicators are better for sellers than buyers. The contract ratio has risen from 35.13 to 35.98. This is consistent with a neutral, balanced market, but with the trend again moving in favor of sellers.

I would say a case for (very) mild optimism can be made. There is certainly no sign whatsoever of a housing market crash.

What the market needs most now is higher transaction volumes. I do not yet know if that is coming, but to hope for it is legitimate. Source, Cromford Report

Where is housing going this year?   Several experts predict anywhere from -1% to +3% for 2024.  No one can really say with certainty. If the economy has a recession even a slight recession will cause housing to drop more than 1%.  Interest rates need to come down below 6% and homes prices need to come down for much more buyers to qualify.  Many sellers won’t sell because 85% have mortgage rates under 5%.  Supply is low with about 3 months of inventory; 6 months of supply is a balanced market. What will give……..

Go to my website for information and a special feature called “Neighborhood News” “the best way to stay connected to what’s happening in the real estate market in your area”.   Also, you can search real time listings in any area of the market.  Check it out and stay updated with my daily blog and monthly market report that I send out monthly.  My Website–Find Your Dream Home

If you’re considering selling or buying, give me a call to discuss your situation and current market conditions.

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Happy New Year!  Wishing you and your family a happy, healthy and prosperous new year!